PARIS (AP) — With the final outcome still up in the air, The French National Rally is strongly against immigration and opponents of the long-taboo far-right party tried Monday to take advantage of the inconclusive first round of voting in the surprise parliamentary elections the day before.
Round one brought the National Rally closer than ever to government, but left open the possibility that voters could still block its path to power in the all-play-for round two. France now faces two likely scenarios in what promises to be a torrid week of high-stakes campaigning.
Buoyed by a wave of support that made the National Rally the winner but not the overall winner, the National Rally and its allies could secure a working majority in parliament in the decisive final round next Sunday – otherwise they could fall short and are hindered at the last hurdle. by opponents who still hope to prevent the formation of France’s first far-right government since World War II.
Both scenarios are fraught with uncertainty for France and its influence in Europe and beyond.
Getting 289 or more lawmakers in the 577-seat National Assembly would give the National Rally leader Marine Le Pen an absolute majority and the means to compel the president Emmanuel Macron to accept her 28-year-old protege, Jordan Bardella, as France’s new prime minister.
Such a power-sharing arrangement between Bardella and the centrist president would be awkward and likely conflictual. Macron has said he will not resign before his second term ends in 2027.
Getting very close to 289 could also work for Le Pen. By promising government posts, she can get enough new lawmakers on her side to make it work. A National Rally government in France would be an additional triumph for far-right and populist parties in Europe that have steadily chipped away at the political mainstream and taken power in some countries, including the populist prime minister Viktor Orbán in Hungary. He will be the European Union’s rotating presidency for the next six months.
But the first round of French voting was also so inconclusive that it raised the alternative possibility that France’s complex two-round system could not deliver a clear and workable majority to any bloc either.
This would put France in uncharted territory.
Le Pen’s opponents, however, still find that scenario more appealing than a victory for her party, which has a history of racism, xenophobia, anti-Semitism and hostility toward French Muslims, as well as historical ties to Russia and a greater conflict with the EU.
Candidates who have qualified for the second round have until 6pm on Tuesday to decide whether to stay in the race or withdraw. By withdrawing, opponents of the National Rally could divert votes to another candidate better positioned to defeat the far right next Sunday.
Some candidates announced of their own accord that they were stepping aside, making a defeat of the National Rally their absolute priority. In other cases, party leaders set the direction, saying they would withdraw candidates in some districts in the hope of blocking Le Pen’s path to power. She inherited her party, then called the National Front, from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has several convictions for racist and anti-Semitic hate speech.
Overall, the National Rally and its allies won a third of the national vote on Sunday, official results show. The New Popular Front, a new left-wing coalition of parties uniting to defeat the far right, received 28% and was followed in third place by Macron’s centrist camp, with 20%. But the 577 seats are elected per district. So while national results provide a general idea of how each camp fared, they don’t tell the story of exactly how many seats they will ultimately get.
The support for the National Rally and the New Popular Front was so strong in some districts that both won more than 30 seats on Sunday, with more than 50% of the votes in those districts in the first round. That means there will be no second round in those districts.
Marine Le Pen said National Rally lawmakers would meet in parliament on Monday and symbolically claim their seats.
When Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called early elections on June 9, after a painful defeat by the National Rally in French votes for the European Parliamentthe very unpopular and weakened president gambled that the far right would not repeat that success, as the fate of the country itself was at stake.
But Macron’s plan failed. He is now accused, even by members of his own camp, of opening a door for the National Rally by calling voters back to the polls, especially when so many are angry about inflation, the cost of living and Macron himself.
If the National Rally can form a government, it has pledged to dismantle many of Macron’s key domestic and foreign policies. It says it will halt French deliveries of long-range missiles to France Ukraine in the war against Russia.
At home, the party’s plans include rolling back Macron’s pension reform, which raised the retirement age, and promising to increase voters’ purchasing power, without clearly specifying how the party would pay for the pledge that also includes European financial markets could be shocked.
Opponents of the National Rally fear civil liberties if it takes power. It plans to expand police forces, cut immigration and restrict the rights of French dual nationals to work in certain defense, security and nuclear jobs, worrying critics and minorities. Macron himself warned during the intense three-week campaign that the far right could put France on the path to civil war.
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Surk reported from Nice, France.
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