A military alliance between Somalia and Egypt is causing unrest in the fragile Horn of Africa, and is particularly troubling for Ethiopia. There are concerns that the consequences could go beyond a war of words.
Tensions rose this week with the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 military aircraft in the Somali capital Mogadishu, marking the beginning of an agreement signed earlier in August during a state visit by the Somali president to Cairo.
The plan is for some 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to be deployed to the new African Union force by the end of this year, with another 5,000 reportedly being deployed separately.
Ethiopia, which is a key ally of Somalia in the fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants and is in conflict with Egypt over a mega-dam it has built on the Nile River, said it cannot “stand still while other actors take steps to destabilize the region.”
Somalia’s defence minister hit back, saying Ethiopia should stop “whining” because everyone “will reap what they sow” – a reference to the country’s diplomatic relations which have been in a downward spiral for months.
Why are Ethiopia and Somalia at odds with each other?
It all comes down to the ambitions of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who wants his landlocked country to have a port. Ethiopia lost its access to the sea when Eritrea seceded in the early 1990s.
On New Year’s Day, Mr Abiy signed a controversial agreement with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland to lease a 20-kilometre stretch of coastline for 50 years to establish a naval base.
It could also lead to Ethiopia officially recognising the breakaway republic, something Somaliland has been pushing for.
Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but Mogadishu still considers it part of its territory and described the deal as an act of “aggression”.
Somalia fears such a move could set a precedent and prompt other countries to recognise Somaliland’s independence, geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton-Harvey told the BBC.
He added that neighbouring Djibouti is also concerned it could harm its own port-dependent economy, as Ethiopia has traditionally relied on Djibouti for imports.
In an attempt to ease tensions, Djibouti’s foreign minister has told the BBC that his country is prepared to offer Ethiopia “100%” access to one of its ports.
“It will be in the port of Tadjoura, 100km (62 miles) from the border with Ethiopia,” Mahmoud Ali Youssouf told BBC Focus on Africa TV.
This is certainly a change, as last year a senior presidential adviser said Djibouti was reluctant to grant its neighbour unfettered access to the Red Sea.
Turkey’s attempts to calm tensions have so far failed. Somalia continues to insist it will not give in until Ethiopia recognizes its sovereignty over Somaliland.
Why is Ethiopia so angry about Somalia’s response?
Not only has Somalia drawn its enemy Egypt into the fighting across the Nile, it has also announced that Ethiopian troops will no longer be part of the AU force from January next year.
This is the start of the AU’s third peacekeeping operation. The first was deployed in 2007, months after Ethiopian troops crossed the border to help fight al-Shabaab, an Islamist militant group that was then in control of the Somali capital.
According to Reuters news agency, there are at least 3,000 Ethiopian troops active in the current AU mission.
Last week, Somalia’s prime minister also said Ethiopia would have to withdraw the remaining 5,000 to 7,000 troops stationed in various regions under separate bilateral agreements unless it withdrew from the port deal with Somaliland.
Ethiopia sees this as a slap in the face of, as the foreign minister put it, “the sacrifices Ethiopian soldiers have made” for Somalia.
The withdrawal of troops would also leave Ethiopia vulnerable to jihadist attacks, Christopher Hockney, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, told the BBC.
The planned deployment of Egyptian troops along the eastern border would also make Ethiopia particularly concerned, he added.
Egypt sees Ethiopia’s Nile Dam – in the west of the country – as an existential threat – and has warned in the past that it will take “measures” if its security is compromised.
Why is the Nile Dam so controversial?
Egypt accuses Ethiopia of endangering its water supply with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd).
This began in 2011 in the Blue Nile tributary in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia, from which 85% of the Nile’s water flows.
Egypt said Ethiopia had pushed ahead with the project with complete “ignorance” of the interests and rights of downstream countries and their water security.
It was also stated that a 2% reduction in the Nile’s water level could result in the loss of about 200,000 acres (81,000 hectares) of irrigated land.
Ethiopia sees the dam as a way to revolutionize the country by producing electricity for 60% of the population and providing businesses with a steady flow of electricity.
Latest diplomatic efforts to sort out how the dam should function – and how much water should flow downstream to Sudan and Egypt – failed last December.
How concerned should we be?
Egypt sees its military deal with Somalia as “historic” – in the words of Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi – and as a possible opportunity to settle the score over the mega-dam.
Dr. Hassan Khannenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, warns that the Nile conflict could also play out in Somalia.
It could potentially lead to a “small-scale international conflict” between Ethiopia and Egypt if their troops meet at the border with Somalia.
Somaliland has also warned that the establishment of Egyptian military bases in Somalia could destabilize the region.
Both Ethiopia and Somalia are already struggling with internal unrest. In Ethiopia, there are small-scale uprisings in several regions, while Somalia, which is recovering from a devastating 30-year civil war, still has to contend with Al-Shabaab.
According to experts, neither side can afford further warfare. More unrest would inevitably lead to more migration.
Dr Khannenje told the BBC that if a conflict were to break out, it could further complicate the geopolitical situation around the Red Sea, as other players would become involved and global trade could be further affected.
At least 17,000 ships pass through the Suez Canal each year, according to shipping monitor Lloyd’s List. That means 12% of annual world trade passes through the Red Sea, worth $1 trillion (£842 billion) worth of goods.
For this reason, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkey are keen to establish partnerships with African countries such as Somalia that border the Red Sea.
According to Mr Harvey, Turkey and the UAE have a better chance to mediate and find a middle way.
The UAE has invested heavily in the Berbera port in Somaliland and has significant influence on Ethiopia through its investments there.
All eyes are on the next diplomatic push from Turkey, which has ties to both Ethiopia and Somalia, with talks set to begin in mid-September.
Additional reporting by the BBC’s Ashley Lime, Waihiga Mwaura, Kalkidan Yibeltal and Juneydi Farah.
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