Monday was the bloodiest day in Lebanon since Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006.
Israel has carried out a series of large-scale airstrikes this morning, killing 492 people so far, according to the Lebanese government. Israelis are warning of more attacks.
The war is rapidly escalating, a process fueled by the scale of the Israeli air offensive.
They are warning civilians to leave the areas they are attacking. Next, they have said, will be the Bekaa Valley in northeastern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold.
Even before the current escalation, more than 100,000 Lebanese had been forced to leave their homes due to Israeli attacks, with no immediate way to return.
We are witnessing a new, very major escalation by the Israelis.
Perhaps they believe that Hezbollah’s position is so weakened at this point that this is their chance to really damage the organization and change the strategic picture in the hills and towns on either side of the Israel-Lebanon border.
Although the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has been going on for decades, the current war between the two sides began a day after the Hamas attacks on October 7 last year.
Hezbollah has launched a limited but continuous rocket campaign across the border, tying down Israeli troops and damaging Israeli property and people. Some 60,000 Israelis have been forced to evacuate to the center of the country. In recent days, sending them back to their homes has been added to Israel’s list of war aims.
The US, UK and other allies – and critics – of Israel believe the only hope to defuse this dangerous crisis is a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has said that attacks on Israel will continue until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But it seems pretty clear at this point that neither the leader of Hamas nor the leader of Israel is willing to accept the deal the US has put on the table.
The war itself enjoys overwhelming support from Israelis, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains unpopular with large sections of Israeli voters despite an improvement in his poll numbers.
Many Israelis also see Netanyahu as a terrible leader who tells lies and has abandoned the hostages in Gaza. So he is a very controversial character, but backed in parliament by the right wing that supports him, he is politically safe.
His decision to attack is risky.
While Hezbollah is wounded, it has the capacity to strike back. And that is why Israel’s friends and enemies are still preparing for the worst.
