Germany will miss its target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 65% below 1990 levels by 2030, according to the government’s climate advisory body.
Contrary to previous statements by Minister of Economy and Climate Robert Habeck, the Council of Experts on Climate Change believes that the 2030 target will not be achieved.
In March, Habeck said: “If we stay the course, we will achieve our 2030 climate goals.”
Chairman of the board, Hans-Martin Henning, has a different opinion.
“Overall, we cannot confirm the cumulative target for the years 2021 to 2030 as reflected in the 2024 projection data; on the contrary, we assume that the target will not be achieved,” Henning said on Monday.
The council’s 130-page report published on Monday is based on the projections of Germany’s Federal Environmental Agency (UBA).
Germany’s climate law stipulates that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by at least 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
By 2040 this should be at least 88% and by 2050 Germany should achieve climate neutrality – meaning the country does not emit more emissions than it can offset.
According to the UBA projections announced by Habeck in March, Germany would remain just within the legally permitted target for greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the council does not expect this to happen for two reasons.
First, there is a lack of information on the likelihood that emissions will actually develop as assumed. According to the experts, expected emissions in the energy, construction and transport sectors and, to a lesser extent, in industry, have been underestimated.
Secondly, the experts point out that the calculations only include data up to and including October 2023. The government then made significant cuts that affected its multi-year climate and economic transformation fund – following a court ruling that threw the government’s budget plans into disarray.
According to the council’s forecast data, it can also be expected that the even more ambitious climate targets for the period 2031 to 2040 will not be achieved.
The greenhouse gas neutrality target will also not be achieved in 2045 and 2050.
The Board of Experts on Climate Change is a panel of scientists, appointed by the government for a period of five years, and who work independently.
Its tasks include the annual assessment of the Federal Environment Agency’s preliminary data on greenhouse gas emissions from the previous year.
Every two years, the experts also submit a report analyzing the effectiveness of measures to achieve Germany’s climate goals.
