South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is facing a difficult dilemma that will determine the country’s future after it spectacularly lost its parliamentary majority in elections last week.
Having secured only 40% of the vote, the ANC must find a coalition partner to secure a majority in parliament that will support its presidential choice – unless it tries to go it alone with a minority government.
One option would be to make a deal with the second largest party, the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% of the vote.
However, this would be politically risky, as the DA’s critics accuse the organization of protecting the economic privileges built up by the country’s white minority during the racist apartheid system – a charge the party denies.
Alternatively, the ANC could work with two radical parties that broke away from it: former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. Julius Malema‘s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
These three parties share the same constituency, the black majority, and their combined vote is 65%. Malema has warned the ANC against forming a coalition that would “reinforce white supremacy” and be a “puppet of a white imperialist agenda”.
This was a clear reference to a coalition with the DA, whose policies are diametrically opposed to those of the ANC, but they both agree on the need to uphold the constitution that South Africa adopted at the end of apartheid in 1994 .
President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that any coalition agreement must fall within the framework of the current constitution.
One of the major obstacles to an agreement is the DA’s fierce opposition to the ANC’s attempts to create a welfare state – especially one publicly funded national health carewhich the DA rejects, saying it is too expensive and threatens the future of the private healthcare sector.
The DA believes in the free market, is against a minimum wage and wants to reduce red tape. According to him, this is the best way to improve the economy and raise the living standards of all South Africans.
It strongly opposes the ANC’s black economic empowerment policies and sees them as discriminatory against racial minorities, while simply leading to the enrichment of the ANC’s corporate cronies.
The ANC denies the allegations and has firmly pursued this policy, arguing that it gives black people a stake in the economy from which they were excluded during apartheid.
ANC president Gwede Mantashe has gone so far as to say the ANC’s black empowerment policy is non-negotiable, suggesting he has ruled out a coalition with the DA.
But according to some local media, President Ramaphosa is willing to enter into a coalition with the DA, believing their policy differences can be overcome.
The ANC’s other option is to form a coalition with MK, which was the big winner of the election by securing third place with 15% of the vote in the first election it contested.
But the party is demanding a new poll, claiming it received more votes but the final result was tampered with. The election commission has rejected the allegation and MK has not yet presented any evidence to support its claim.
The divide between the ANC and the ANC is wide, wider than any other party, partly because of the personal animosity between Mr Zuma and Mr Ramaphosa, who ousted him as the country’s leader.
In addition to demanding a new president, MK also wants the constitution to be torn up so that South Africa becomes an “unfettered parliamentary democracy” – something the ANC has ruled out.
At first glance, this also excludes the EFF, because it too is demanding a constitutional amendment so that white-owned land can be expropriated without compensation.
Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader who was expelled from the party in 2012 for fomenting divisions and bringing the party into disrepute, said the EFF was willing to work with the ANC in a coalition government. However, the party’s demand for land expropriation was a “cardinal principle” and it would not join the government if the ANC rejected it.
The ANC and EFF together have 198 seats – just short of the 201 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, so a smaller party would need to be brought into a coalition.
Or they could work with Zuma’s parliament, which also supports land expropriation and says it is necessary to distribute farmland on an “equal basis among the farming population.”
But to change the constitution a two-thirds majority is needed and again the ANC, EFF and MK fall just short of the required 267 seats – together they have 256 seats.
While the ANC opposes constitutional amendments, it accepts that current land ownership patterns need to be addressed.
In an interview with South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, former president Kgalema Motlanthe, a close ally of Ramaphosa, said the “land issue” was a “source of national discontent”.
His comments suggest there could be room for agreement with the EFF, and possibly even parliament, on this issue.
The DA strongly opposes a deal between its three rivals, saying it would be a ‘Doomsday Coalition’ that would turn South Africa into a ‘Zimbabwe or Venezuela’.
“The Doomsday Coalition will plunge this country into an ethnic and racial conflict unlike anything it has ever seen before,” the party said.
But some ANC officials believe the opposite: that stability would be at risk if MK is excluded, given its electoral success, which has made it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.
KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second most populous province and is often described as the country’s economic artery because of its ports.
It is also the most politically unstable province, with a history of violence: more than 300 people were killed in riots after Zuma was sent to prison in 2021.
He was convicted of contempt of court for defying an order to cooperate with an official corruption investigation during his nine-year presidency that ended in 2018.
ANC members in KwaZulu-Natal point out that with another trial looming – Mr Zuma will stand trial next year on corruption charges over a 1999 arms deal – there is a real risk of a new wave of violence.
They therefore believe that some sort of deal should be reached with him to draw a line under the past and recognize his status as a former president – especially since he has demonstrated that he owns 15% of the national vote.
ANC leaders in Gauteng – South Africa’s largest and wealthy province – are said to be in favor of a deal with the EFF, but their hand has been significantly weakened by the fact that the two parties do not have enough seats for a parliamentary majority.
That raises the prospect of an ANC-DA coalition, especially as it is favored by the private sector as the best option to guarantee economic stability and prevent capital flight.
But South Africa’s respected News24 website reports that the ANC is considering the possibility of forming a minority government while signing a confidence and supply agreement with the DA and the Inkatha Freedom Party, a mainly black party with support in KwaZulu -Natal. which has 17 seats.
The two would vote with the ANC on crucial issues such as the budget, while the ANC would have to continuously lobby them – or other parties – to support it on other legislation.
This could help the ANC out of the dilemma of choosing a coalition partner, and it could also be to the DA’s advantage, as a coalition with the ANC could cause it to lose support to right-wing parties.
However, there is a risk that a minority government could lead to political instability and ‘transactional politics’: opposition MPs demanding or being offered bribes to support ANC-sponsored legislation.
It’s still too early to say what will happen. All parties are still considering their options, but many South Africans hope that by the time parliament convenes, within a fortnight, there will be at least an outline agreement on what the next government will look like.
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