Mozambique is on the brink of a watershed election that will see a change of presidential guard, ending the era of leaders who built their careers in the trenches of the war of independence against Portuguese rule.
For the first time, the once all-powerful Frelimo party is fielding a presidential candidate born after independence: the charismatic 47-year-old Daniel Chapo, whom it hopes will appeal to voters who have had enough of the 49-year rule.
“In some places, members of the Frelimo campaign have been booed and openly rejected,” political commentator Charles Mangwiro told the BBC.
Mozambique – strategically located along Africa’s southern coast and rich in natural resources but hit by an insurgency in its remote north – will hold presidential elections on Wednesday, along with parliamentary and gubernatorial elections.
President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down at the end of his two terms and hopes to hand power to Chapo. His government faced the fallout from the tuna bond corruption scandal, which caused the country’s worst economic crisis.
By comparison, Chapo is a breath of fresh air – drawing large crowds at rallies across the country while distancing himself from the corruption that has plagued Frelimo for much of its rule since independence in 1975.
“Brother Dan is honesty personified… He is the voice of the hope we want to embrace… It’s time for change,” reads the lyrics of one of his campaign songs.
But human rights activist and journalist Mirna Chitsungo says she doubts Chapo can convince all voters that he can change Frelimo.
“If we have a degraded country, it is because of corruption. He faces the challenge of promising to fight this evil while being part of a party that has perpetuated widespread corruption,” she told the BBC.
In Chapo’s favor is the fact that he is a relative newcomer to the political arena. He only joined the government as a district administrator in 2011 and rose to become governor of the southern province of Inhambane in 2019 before taking over as general secretary of Frelimo in May. .
But his critics say Frelimo has a backup plan to ensure victory: fraud.
A leading non-governmental organization in Mozambique, Centro de Integridade Pública, says its research has shown that around 5% of names on the electoral roll are fake, or so-called ‘ghost voters’ – that’s a figure of almost 900,000.
“The simple fact is that data published by the CNE (Central National Elections Commission) itself shows that in some provinces there are 878,868 more registered voters than there are adults of voting age, and therefore these are ghost voters on the electoral roll,” said Mozambique analyst Joe. Hanlon told the BBC.
Miguel de Brito, of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, notes that “ghost voters” are not evenly distributed across the country; only seven of the ten major provinces have registered more voters than residents.
For example, a third of all registered people in Gaza province, who usually vote overwhelmingly for Frelimo, are thought to be ‘ghost voters’.
It is also the area where large numbers of people leave every year to work in South Africa.
“It has gotten worse: this year we have managed to register almost 105% of the voting population nationally,” Mr De Brito told the BBC.
Both the election commission and Frelimo deny any foul play and emphasize that the elections will be free and fair.
Chapo faces a challenge from three other candidates:
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Venâncio Mondlane, an independent
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Ossufo Momade of the main opposition party Renamo, and
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Lutero Simango, who is leading the campaign of the third largest party, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), promising to build more factories and lower the cost of living.
Of the three, Mondlane is the new face, vying for the presidency for the first time after breaking away from Renamo.
With the slogan “Save Mozambique – this land is ours”, the 50-year-old is proving to be a big hit, especially in the campaign to win the youth vote.
“He (Mondlane) uses this slogan everywhere and he tries to explain to young voters that they should be proud to be Mozambican because the conditions are there not to be poor or unemployed,” Mangwiro explains.
“He draws large crowds at his campaign rallies and people don’t have to march to attend – whether it’s raining, cold or sunny.”
Mondlane, a former banker, first made an impression when he ran for mayor of the capital Maputo in last year’s local elections.
Many people believed that he had won, claiming that the result was then manipulated in favor of Frelimo’s candidate.
Mondlane fought in those elections under the Renamo banner, but left the party after 60-year-old Momade refused to make room for him to take over.
Momade became Renamo’s leader after the death of its long-time leader Afonso Dhlakama in 2018.
He is widely credited with signing a peace deal with Nyusi to end a civil war that had raged between Renamo fighters and government forces.
Momade ran for president in the 2019 elections, claiming he was robbed of victory by Nyusi, but remained committed to the peace deal.
Although he is confident of winning this time, his chances are hampered by Mondlane’s entry into the race – a point made by Chitsungo, the human rights activist, when she said that Mondlane is seen by many Renamo voters as a ‘ young man with the spirit of Dhlakama”.
“It is as if we are holding elections with a resurrected Dhlakama, a rejuvenated Dhlakama. So we have a novelty,” she emphasized.
Chapo hopes the vote on Renamo will be split between the two men, increasing his chances of victory.
In a sign of his determination to win, Chapo has traveled to neighboring South Africa to raise money for his campaign, hosting a banquet in an upmarket suburb of Johannesburg.
He also addressed ordinary Mozambicans in the city, urging them to cast their votes at the embassy, where they could register to vote earlier this year.
“This is a candidacy for renewal,” he told the crowd. “This is a unique opportunity I have to make a difference, almost 50 years after independence.”
Mondlane also took his campaign to Johannesburg, where he visited a fresh food market run by Mozambicans in the city.
“I will solve the problems that caused you to leave Mozambique,” he said.
Violence in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, which has witnessed jihadist attacks since 2017 that halted lucrative liquefied natural gas projects there, has not been a major election issue.
Rwandan and South African troops, deployed several years ago to confront the insurgents, are still on the ground for now – although Ziyanda Stuurman, of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, says there has been an “increase in the frequency and severity of insurgent attacks. since January”.
Most analysts agree that the biggest challenge for any new president will be creating economic opportunity and jobs in a country where 62% of the population lives in extreme poverty, on less than $1.90 a day.
But the election race is still wide open, with candidates and parties holding their final campaign rallies on Sunday.
Mangwiro, the political analyst, refuses to bet on who will win on Wednesday, saying: “It’s too close to call.”
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