It has been almost two years since the African Union signed a peace deal that ended the crisis war between the Ethiopian state and the Tigray regional government. The signing of the Agreement on the cessation of hostilities this came to an end in November 2022 a deadly two-year conflict.
The agreement has led to a number of outcomes. These include:
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an end to fighting between Tigrayan and Ethiopian forces
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the establishment of a transitional government in Tigray, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front
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the demobilization of 50,000 Tigrayan troops
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the Tigray People’s Liberation Front regains its legal status as a political party registered under special conditions
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the approval in Addis Ababa of a transitional justice policy
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the establishment of an AU-led monitoring and verification mission.
But much remains to be done if peace is to be sustainable. We to have studied 42 comprehensive and 236 partial peace agreements in the last thirty years. Based on this experience, we argue that pressing issues still need to be addressed in the Ethiopian agreement. If left unattended, they increase the risk of a return to war.
Empirical research suggests that a higher overall implementation rate peace agreements from civil wars lead to lasting peace. It is the only proven route for this resolving remaining conflicts in a country. Doing what has been agreed is necessary for the post-war recovery.
In Ethiopia the disarmament and demobilization of Tigrayan fighters needs urgent attention. This includes the protection of civilians and returnees in disputed areas in western and northern Tigray, and the restoration of basic infrastructure in the region. The state must also ensure the smooth delivery of humanitarian aid, the withdrawal of foreign troops from Tigray and the representation of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in the federal government.
The holes
A substantial reason for the lack of progress in building lasting peace is that the Agreement on the cessation of hostilities there are holes in it.
First, only the immediate cessation of hostilities and the demobilization and disarmament of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front fighters were clearly spelled out. Other principles – such as civil protection, providing humanitarian assistance and ensuring accountability for the conflict – were left to ‘implement in good faith’.
The peace agreement and its implementation process in Tigray are lacking protection mechanisms. These are procedures in which the power-sharing governmentdispute resolution and robust mechanisms to verify the implementation of the agreement. However, between these three pillars, only the verification mechanism exists, and that is true very weak. Safeguards create ownership, inclusivity and accountability. They reinforce the urgency of implementing peace agreements.
Secondly, the underlying causes of conflicts and grievances have not been addressed in the agreed manner. These include the withdrawal of foreign troops from Tigray, the reconstruction of conflict-affected communities and the representation of the Tigrayan government in the federal government. Addressing these grievances could create the mutual trust needed to revive them stuck process of building peace.
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Third, open conflict with Tigrayan forces has diminished political dialogue between regional and national authorities did not happen. This dialogue is key to address ambiguities in the peace agreement. The success of the agreement depends on actions at the federal level – such as the recovery of internally displaced persons. Yet the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is not represented at this level.
Fourth, Tigrayans displaced by conflict are slowly returning to their communities. But the uncertainty remains acute, because it is not clear when all the Tigrayan fighters are demobilized and all that troops from Eritrea withdrawn. The existing monitoring mechanism is weak and cannot independently verify what has been achieved.
Fifth, the Ethiopian government’s transitional justice policy is unclear. It does not provide guidance on who should be prosecuted as there are still people out there persistent conflicts in Ethiopia. The policy also avoids international scrutiny. Critical aspects to prevent recurrence of atrocities by adhering to them are lacking international standards.
Political factors
The lack of progress in building lasting peace can also be attributed to a lack of political will on both sides.
The federal government has no resources for reconstruction. For example, little has happened reconstruction of basic infrastructure. The cost of recovering from the war in Tigray is estimated at more than 44 billion dollars.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, in turn, is in the throes of growth gap between the chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, and the vice-chairman and head of the interim government in Tigray, Getachew Reda. This has diverted attention from managing the rivalry between the parties, rather than putting pressure on the federal government to take necessary action.
Debretsion prioritizes the return of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to its former glory control over the political structure in Tigray. Getachew does insist on a conciliatory approach with the government and demonstrate willingness to compromise the party’s position on peace and security.
What still needs to be done
Ethiopia is facing a turning point. The peace agreement can be implemented more quickly if the Tigray People’s Liberation Front maintains its cohesion. When it is divided into factions, it cannot hold the Abiy Ahmed regime to account.
Research shows that rebel movements such as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front often form factions after signing peace deals due to disagreements over the compromises made to reach an agreement. A slow implementation process can further divide a rebel movement as it is unable to serve its supporters or justify the war and unaddressed humanitarian and human rights abuses.
Factions weaken the party, create instability and damage the peace process.
The unity of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front is crucial to the success of the deal and its bid to return to political power in Tigray.
This article is republished from The conversationan independent, nonprofit news organization that brings you facts and trusted analysis to help you understand our complex world. It was written by: Madhav Joshi, University of Notre Dame And Halkano Boru, University of Notre Dame
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The authors do not work for, consult with, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
