Hadley’s opinion
Don’t expect Gulf governments to stop Israel’s brutal campaign to wipe out Iran’s allies.
As Israel unilaterally undermines the balance of power in the Middle East, the Gulf states will watch and wait from the sidelines, ready to take action again if a new order actually emerges.
That’s because Israel’s campaign to eliminate enemies of the state – Hamas and Hezbollah – aligns with the interests of the Gulf governments. They too are determined to eliminate Iran’s allies in the region. Despite the horrific loss of life in Gaza and a rising death toll in Lebanon, the Abraham Accords remain intact, and Saudi Arabia continues to work to normalize ties with Israel, gathering security guarantees from the US along the way.
Governments in the Gulf states have for years funneled money to various Lebanese political parties, governments and aid groups with little to show for it. The country’s inability to govern itself effectively has been exploited internally and externally for years, creating a vortex of wasted time, talent and money that Gulf governments have little desire to maintain: a Gulf officials recently compared the previous policy of patronage in places like Lebanon to setting money on fire just to enjoy the flames.
In 2019, Saad Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister with deep Saudi ties, said his countrymen were their own worst enemy. Then he was leader of a state on the brink of economic collapse, and custodian of a country whose banking system had been manipulated. Lenders financed post-war reconstruction, but politicians never implemented the economic reforms needed to keep it stable. After a prolonged period of high interest rates, banks failed, wiping out savings.
As the currency lost more than 90% of its value, Lebanon was repeatedly hit by a series of economic, humanitarian and security crises, including the Beirut port explosion. In recent years, the only people who have done well are the people with new dollars, and that is what the Iranian proxy in Lebanon could provide. Despite a paralyzed state, Hezbollah and its followers are experiencing a prolonged period of strength, calm and growth. For years I listened as members of every sect – Muslims, Christians and Druze – condemned Nasrallah and openly called on Israel to eliminate him.
But now that the deed has been done, the price for killing the Hezbollah commander may be too high for most to bear. In an interview last week at his compound in Beirut, former Druze leader Walid Joumblatt told me that those who continued to clamor for swift Israeli intervention should be careful what they wish for.
When I spoke to him, the 75-year-old, whose political survival skills are legendary, said he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to change the entire order in the Middle East, potentially leading to total chaos.
History has shown that there are no benefits to Gulf involvement. The region’s rulers may be happy to return and rebuild what Israel is destroying in Lebanon and Gaza, as long as this “new order” emerges. Until that happens, the Gulf will rely on a lesson in throwing good money after bad, and will be content to despise the method without engaging in the madness.
