According to forecasts, Germany’s anti-immigration party Alternative für Deutschland is on track for victory in the eastern state of Thuringia.
According to a forecast by public broadcaster ARD, the AfD is expected to win 30.8% of the vote, putting it more than six points ahead of the conservative CDU and far ahead of Germany’s three governing parties.
If the party is confirmed, it would mean that the far-right would win its first victory in a state parliament since World War II. However, it is unlikely that it will be able to form a government in Thuringia.
Some five million Germans were allowed to vote in two state elections in the east on Sunday. The AfD is also trailing the conservative CDU in the elections for a state parliament in Saxony.
In Saxony, an ARD forecast shows the CDU getting 31.6% and the AfD 30.2%, putting them well ahead of the three parties forming the national government.
The leader of the AfD in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, a highly controversial figure in Germany, praised a “historic victory”.
His party has been labelled as far-right and he was fined for using a Nazi slogan, but the former history teacher denies that he did so knowingly.
Immigration played a big role in Sunday’s election, but the AfD also wants to end arms shipments to Ukraine. So does a new party in third place in both states: the BSW of left-wing populist leader Sahra Wagenknecht.
“Politicians have promised a lot, especially on migration and foreigners,” AfD voter Michael told the BBC in Erfurt, the capital of the state of Thuringia.
“But nothing happened. Nothing. Only promises came from these parties. Now I have my party. And I stand behind my decision.”
If the forecasts come true, the AfD is on track to win 30 seats in Thuringia’s 88-seat state parliament, and the CDU 24 seats, with only one of the three parties represented in the national government.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to win only seven seats. The Greens and the liberal FDP will not win any seats.
