By Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s annual inflation rate is expected to continue to decline in September despite the impact of a truckers’ strike, according to a Reuters poll on Wednesday, while expectations for this year remain stable.
According to the average forecast of 20 analysts, Colombia’s annual inflation rate through September will be 5.83%, lower than the 6.12% reported at the end of August, but still well above the central bank’s long-term target of 3% .
If the average forecast is met, consumer prices will rise by 0.26% in September, similar to the 0.25% in the same month last year, but higher than the 0% recorded in August.
Analyst estimates ranged from 0.17% to 0.38%.
In September, “the education sector will be reactivated by the school calendar, while we expect moderate inflation in the rest of the sectors,” said Jackeline Pirajan, Scotiabank’s chief economist for Colombia.
She added that the effect of the national strike on food prices was visible at the start of the month but is “fast fading.”
The South American country faced a four-day truck strike in the first week of September to protest the rise in diesel prices, which caused food and fuel shortages in major cities.
The significant slowdown in inflation has been the main reason for the central bank’s 275 basis point cut in interest rates since the downward cycle began in December 2023.
On Monday, the monetary authority cut rates by 50 basis points to 10.25%, in a divided vote with three of the seven board members calling for a 75 basis point cut. The remaining four tended to remain more cautious to keep inflation under control.
Survey respondents now expect inflation to end this year at 5.6%, virtually unchanged from the 5.61% forecast last month, while expectations for the end of 2025 have slowed to 3.70%, down from 3. 75% in the previous survey.
(Reporting by Nelson Bocanegra; Writing by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez; Editing by Toby Chopra)
