France’s political future was up in the air Thursday as the far right soared in the polls, but other forces fought to the end for three days before a high-stakes parliamentary vote.
Depending on the outcome, President Emmanuel Macron could be left in a tense “cohabitation” with a prime minister from an opposing party, or with a chamber unable to forge a stable majority for at least a year to govern the EU’s second-largest economy and top military power.
Surveys show that voters will give Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) more than 35 percent in Sunday’s first round, with a left-wing alliance up to 29 and Macron’s centrists in the dust at around 20 percent.
When he called the midterm poll after a mishandling of the June 9 European elections by the RN, Macron had hoped to offer voters a stark choice on whether to hand France over to the far right.
But the lightning-fast three-week campaign “would not reverse the major trends,” Brice Teinturier, deputy director of pollster Ipsos, told Le Monde newspaper, adding that the “RN bloc is incredibly powerful.”
Even France’s seasoned pollsters are struggling to translate that base level of support into an end result, as the second round of July 7 voting – which many expected to be a three-way battle – could see voters of loyalty and new alliances change. form.
A higher than normal turnout could also change the mood.
About two-thirds of eligible voters plan to cast their ballots, which would be the highest level since 1997.
On Thursday, polling firm Harris Interactive Toluna predicted 250 to 305 of the 577 seats for the RN – giving it an outright majority – while Ifop-Fiducial suggested the party could reach 260.
Le Pen was already making plans for an absolute majority and a RN government leader. He told the daily Telegramme that the president’s title as commander-in-chief of the armed forces was “an honorary title, because it is the prime minister who calls the shots.”
Therefore, “the president will not be able to send troops to Ukraine,” she added, undercutting his warning to Moscow that France would keep all options on the table to thwart Russia’s invasion of its neighbor.
Her candidate for prime minister, Jordan Bardella, has already pledged not to send long-range missiles and other weapons to Kiev that could strike Russian territory, in a reversal of Macron’s policy.
The RN has also said it will not agree to form a government without an absolute majority, leaving open the possibility that no political force can keep a prime minister in place.
– Last gasp –
Hoping to defy the odds, incumbent Gabriel Attal – named by Macron months ago as France’s youngest-ever prime minister – will face RN frontman Bardella and Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure in a televised debate on Thursday night.
It is one of the last chances to convince voters, as campaigning on Saturday and during the polls on Sunday have been officially suspended.
Candidates failed to deliver a decisive blow during an earlier broadcast on Tuesday.
Attal delivered his message during Wednesday’s lightning-fast three-week campaign in central France, asking voters to reject an RN that “stigmatizes” parts of the population and a left-wing alliance that he says panders to sectarianism.
Bardella could try to clarify some of his plans for voters’ pockets, after struggling to explain how to reverse Macron’s unpopular increase in the retirement age or shape a policy to free the under-30s assessment of income tax.
He was forced to say on Wednesday that “of course there would be a cap” on the income tax exemption after being challenged over whether French star striker Kylian Mbappe’s multi-million salary would go untaxed.
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