The skies above the South China Sea have become a new front for potential conflict as the Philippines steps up air patrols and air drops near reefs also claimed by China, a Chinese think tank has warned.
The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) has also called for heightened vigilance in response to the “aerial provocations” and has issued a warning on social media.
“As China strengthens its maritime control, the Philippines has exhausted its tactics and means of maritime intrusion. Airstrikes are becoming another important front for the Philippines to stir up trouble in the South China Sea,” the Beijing-based think tank said in an article posted on its WeChat account on Monday.
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The risks and unpredictability associated with air combat, especially those of a confrontational nature, are significantly greater than those at sea, the report said.
“Should the Philippines continue with airstrikes, China will be forced to take corresponding measures. Friction or even collisions in the air could have more serious consequences than collisions with ships.”
Last month, the Philippines conducted four military air patrols around the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough SandbankAccording to the SCSPI, this has “exacerbated the situation in the South China Sea”.
The Philippines has also been increasingly airdropping supplies to personnel stationed on disputed atolls in the resource-rich and busy waterway, the report said, citing four such operations this year.
This included a resupply mission last week for the BRP Teresa Magbanua, a sophisticated Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessel anchored at the disputed Sabina school since april.
In recent weeks, maritime confrontations between the two sides have become increasingly frequent and intense at the Spratly Reef, also known as the Xianbin Reef in China and the Escoda Reef in the Philippines.
The Philippines deployed a helicopter last week to deliver the supplies after Chinese ships thwarted previous attempts to deliver essential goods by boat.
The Chinese coast guard said Thursday it was closely monitoring the airdrop and warned that “such risky behavior is highly likely to cause unexpected incidents at sea or in the air.”
According to the SCSPI, Manila’s increased patrols, air drops and airspace incursions around Beijing-controlled islands were “deliberate intrusions” in an attempt to change the status quo in the region.
The Philippines primarily used single-engine turboprop aircraft, it noted, which the report said were “less suited to complex maritime environments” and posed a greater risk of accidents when deployed frequently at sea.
According to the article, Philippine aircraft also frequently fly with deactivated Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) transponders, significantly increasing security risks.
By deactivating such transponders, the real-time position of the aircraft is not shared with air traffic controllers and other aircraft, making it more difficult to maintain situational awareness and avoid potential conflicts or collisions.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr recently said his country is considering deploying FA-50 light combat aircraft to escort patrol aircraft over the South China Sea.
Last month, Manila accused Beijing of carrying out dangerous aerial maneuvers in the region, such as the release of torches in the flight path of a Philippine patrol plane during a routine mission near Scarborough Sandbanka rich fishing ground controlled by China called Huangyan Island. The Philippines call it Panatag Shoal.
The air battles come as maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines continue over disputed reefs in the South China Sea.
Regular confrontations over the past year have included allegations of ramming by both sides, and the use of water cannons and military lasers by the Chinese coast guard. Most of the damage has been sustained by Philippine vessels, including the Teresa Magbanua last week. Filipino crew members have also been injured in some of the collisions.
“The Philippines’ determination to change the existing status quo has led to frequent maritime disputes and clashes with China. As the Philippines intensifies its air provocations, the potential for dangerous air battles increases, warranting greater caution and vigilance,” the SCSPI said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP)the most authoritative voice covering China and Asia for over a century. For more SCMP stories, explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook And Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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