Nepal will continue its delicate balancing act between India and China, observers say, after political maneuvers formed a new governing coalition and got a new prime minister sworn in this week.
The changes mark a parliamentary shift away from previous communist rule, after the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) broke its alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and instead formed a coalition with the centrist, New Delhi-leaning Nepali Congress, previously the country’s largest opposition party.
With the new coalition now in power, the move marked a change of leadership. Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli of the UML took oath on Monday – the fourth time he has served in the post – replacing his predecessor Pushpa Kamal Dahal, leader of the Maoists.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP knowledgeour new platform featuring carefully curated content with explanations, FAQs, analyses and infographics, brought to you by our award-winning team.
While there is no bad blood between the two communist parties that previously formed the government, this means a shift from a Nepalese government that was pro-Beijing to a government that has a mix of loyalties between Beijing and Delhi.
However, observers say this shift is unlikely to fundamentally change the status quo, as Kathmandu is economically and security-dependent on both Asian powers.
Professor Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Nepal’s foreign policy is a “pragmatic” policy.
“No matter who becomes Nepal’s prime minister, it is very unlikely that Kathmandu’s policy toward China and India will change. All these politicians are becoming more shrewd and pragmatic,” Lin said.
“The Nepalese diplomacy in the past has always been a balance between China and India, which is one of the basic lines. There may be slight differences between India-oriented or China-oriented in different governments, but they would certainly not insult each other just because they are friendlier to one country.”
He added that Nepal’s ever-changing political landscape, with its frequent changes of leadership, also makes it difficult to implement significant policy changes.
“This round of political change in Nepal is very normal. Nepal has not had a full-term government for a long time,” he said. “Currently, Nepali politicians are less concerned with promoting their ideologies and more with their party’s interests.”
In the past 16 years, Nepal has seen 14 such power shifts. Oli has been prime minister four times in 10 years; Dahal has been prime minister three times.
Dr Amit Ranjan, a researcher at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, said Nepal cannot afford to cross swords with either country but that Kathmandu’s pro-China, pro-India governance is “interesting to watch”.
“(The Nepali Congress) is seen as pro-India and Oli is seen as pro-China. So it will be interesting to see how they behave,” Ranjan said.
The landlocked South Asian country has long been considered by Delhi to fall within India’s sphere of influence. India borders Nepal on three sides and Kathmandu is heavily dependent on Delhi for trade and energy supplies.
India also played a major role in helping to end the Nepalese Civil Warwhich ran from 1996 to 2006 after Dahal’s Maoists attempted to overthrow the Nepalese monarchy. It was Delhi that helped broker a peace deal that saw the country successfully integrate communist parties into its political system.
Ranjan said that historically Nepal has been more dependent on India, with long-standing, close ties that China cannot compete with.
That said, when Oli was serving his first term as prime minister in 2015, he angered Delhi over a new constitution that divided the country into seven states, leading to protests from the Madhesi group, mainly of Indian origin, who said they were not getting enough territory. As a result, India imposed a economic blockade across Nepal, blocking the entry of medicines and other supplies into the country.
Oli is known as a friend of China and also indicated that Nepal is ready to work with Beijing on the Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure project that Delhi has criticized.
Although Nepal joined the initiative in 2017, no Belt and Road projects have been launched yet as Kathmandu has yet to sign the implementation agreement with Beijing. The possibility of Oli signing the plan is Delhi’s biggest concern, The Times of India reported.
Ranjan, however, doubted whether Oli would take aggressive steps given his new alliance with the India-oriented Nepali Congress.
“This is an unnatural alliance, as the two parties are completely different. They are polar opposites. They are not ideologically or politically aligned; they have been fighting against each other. So it is very difficult to manage,” he said.
Under the previous government and the China-leaning Dahal, important steps were taken to bring Nepal into line with China. Both Dahal and his foreign minister visited Beijing.
According to Ranjan, under the previous alliance of two communist parties with similar ideologies, there was no problem with such actions, but under the new coalition with the Nepali Congress, those days are over.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP)the most authoritative voice covering China and Asia for over a century. For more SCMP stories, explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook And Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
