NAIROBI, Aug 7 (IPS) – Extreme weather linked to climate change is jeopardising Kenya’s development agenda; despite contributing little to global warming, it has been classified as a high-risk country by development banks. Kenya contributes less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions annually, but development banks have classified the East African nation as a high climate-risk country. This is because extreme weather changes are increasingly threatening the country’s development agenda, widening socio-economic inequalities and increasing poverty and hunger in rural areas.
Climate change is a long-term change in temperatures and weather patterns. Climate risk is the potential damage caused by climate change, such as financial, social, and ecological destruction and loss of life. Country-specific climate risk profiles are a summary of an analysis of climate trends over a long period of time, revealing how variability in weather patterns affects life and livelihoods.
Countries are advised to use these profiles to inform their development agendas, as failure to do so can significantly disrupt the achievement of established development goals. For example, unpredictability in weather patterns has a negative impact on certain sectors of the Kenyan economy.
This includes agriculture, tourism, horticulture, livestock and pastoralism, and forest products. Nearly 98 percent of agriculture is rain-fed. Using climate risk projections, the country can invest in irrigation to reduce the impact of climate change on the sector, as about 75 percent of Kenyans derive their livelihood from agriculture.
Kenya’s most recent climate risk profile provides a summary of climate trends spanning two decades from 1991 to 2020, showing that an estimated 68 percent of natural disasters in Kenya are caused by extreme climate events, mainly floods and droughts. The remaining 32 percent represents disease epidemics.
High temperatures cause frequent, intense droughts
A total of 16 drought events have been recorded from 1991 to 2020, affecting millions of people and causing a total estimated damage of US$1.5 billion. Despite flooding being a more recent phenomenon in Kenya, it has become increasingly frequent, resulting in 45 floods in the same period. While a pattern of droughts was established as early as 1975, a pattern of flooding only emerged from 2012 to 2020.
A recurring pattern of droughts and floods costs the country about 3 to 5 percent of its annual gross domestic product. Over the past two decades, Kenya’s average annual temperature has been 24.2 degrees Celsius, with a high of 30.3 degrees Celsius and a low of 18.3 degrees Celsius.
To give some perspective on average temperatures in Kenya, 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 follows suit. According to the Associate Professor of Meteorology at the University of Nairobi, writing in The Conversation. Average temperatures in the capital Nairobi are generally moderate, with highs of 24°C to 25°C and lows of 17°C to 18°C.
“These are generally very pleasant temperatures. However, in the period December-January-February, the maximum temperatures are normally high, varying between 26°C and 27°C.
“This year, temperatures in February rose to between 29°C and 30°C, even reaching 31°C. That is about 6°C higher than normal temperatures in Nairobi. That is a big difference and our bodies will definitely feel that difference. If such an increase continues for a long time, it could lead to a heat wave.”
Droughts are a very urgent and persistent problem in Kenya. As early as 1975, drought cycles occurred every 10 years. But as climate change increases in both frequency and intensity, the drought cycle has been reduced from every 10 years to every five years, to every two to three years.
Every year there is a period of drought and food shortage. The regularity of extremely dry periods makes it difficult for the country to recover from one drought to the next.
A history of drought cycles in Kenya from 1991 to 2020
Drought is a common occurrence in Kenya. In 1991-1992, more than 1.5 million people were affected by drought. This was followed by another cycle of widespread drought in 1995-1996 that affected at least 1.4 million people.
In January 1997, the government declared the drought a national disaster, affecting more than two million people, and the famine continued until 1998. Shortly thereafter, in 1999-2000, an estimated 4.4 million people were in urgent need of food aid due to a severe famine. As far as natural disasters go, this was declared the worst in the previous 37 years.
The 1998-2000 drought cost the country an estimated $2.8 billion, largely due to crop and livestock losses, wildfires, damage to fisheries, reduced hydroelectric power generation, reduced industrial production, and reduced water supplies.
In 2004, the absence of the long rains from March to June led to a severe drought, leaving more than three million Kenyans in need of urgent food aid. In December 2005, the government declared the drought a national disaster, affecting at least 2.5 million people in northern Kenya alone.
The 2008 drought affected 1.4 million people and a total of 10 million people were at risk of hunger after crop failures caused by the drought in late 2009 and early 2010. The severe and prolonged drought caused $12.1 billion in damages and losses in the country and cost more than $1.7 billion in recovery.
There are 47 counties in Kenya. Because only 20 percent of Kenya receives high and regular rainfall, the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) regions of Kenya comprise 18 to 20 of the poorest counties, which are particularly at risk from increased aridity and droughts.
The ASAL regions experienced three very severe droughts between 2010 and 2020. The 2010-2011 period was severe and prolonged, affecting at least 3.7 million people, causing US$12.1 billion in damages and losses, and costing more than US$1.7 billion in recovery and reconstruction needs.
That cycle was followed by the 2016-2017 drought. The 2020-2022 famine, which was the most severe, longest and widespread, as more than 4.2 million people, or 24 percent of the ASAL population, faced high levels of acute food insecurity.
Overview of natural disasters in Kenya, 1991–2020
Kenya is increasingly experiencing periods of intense, heavy rainfall. During this period, there were a total of 45 floods, directly affecting more than 2.5 million people and causing an estimated damage of USD 137 million. These events occurred in 1997, 1998, 2002, 2012 and 2020, because they were short, frequent and intense.
Unlike drought and famine, the history of floods in Kenya is much shorter. There were many consecutive drought seasons from 1991 to 1997. From 1997 onwards, a pattern of flooding began to emerge in this East African country.
It all started with the historic, severe and deadly El Niño floods of 1997-1998 that were widespread and affected 1.5 million people. This was followed by the 2002 floods that affected 150,000 people. Kenya has experienced floods almost every year from 2010 to 2020.
Expected risk for the future
“From 2020 to 2050, projections show that ASAL regions will receive increasingly less rainfall. Temperatures in the country will continue to rise by 1.7 degrees Celsius by 2050 and by another approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century. The escalation of climate change will increase our climate risk,” Mildred Nthiga, an independent climate change researcher in East Africa, told IPS.
“We will have more frequent and damaging floods, and this will be followed by longer periods of drought. We have already had some worrying landslides and mudslides, and this will become an even greater concern, particularly in the highlands.”
Emphasizing that additional soil erosion and crop waterlogging will significantly impact agricultural productivity, reduce yields and increase food security. There will also be significant economic losses, severe damage to agricultural lands and infrastructure.
Worse still, as the deadly floods of 2024 showed, human casualties. This will increase poverty and hunger in rural areas and undermine Kenya’s progress towards achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Please note: This feature is published with the support of the Open Society Foundations.
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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service
