When Kiev launched a cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk region, which borders Ukraine, the question some military experts asked was: “Why?”
One of the biggest problems on the Ukrainian battlefield is manpower. Russia has more soldiers and is closing in on the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.
Sending hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers to Russia itself is, let’s say, counterintuitive to some.
But not everything.
“It was not a coincidence,” war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets said in a Facebook post. “It is clearly part of one clear plan.”
Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst, agrees, telling the BBC that Russia was forced to redeploy troops from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
“If you look at the official reports, significantly fewer Russian glide bombs were dropped in the Donetsk area,” he said.
“That means the planes carrying them are now somewhere else in Russia.”
It is highly unlikely that Ukraine intends to occupy Russian territory with this invasion. But if the goal was to bring in Russian troops, that is now being rapidly realized.
Recent history may also play a role. Russia itself launched a major cross-border offensive into Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region.
The advance appears to have slowed after the US gave Ukraine permission to fire missiles at targets in Russia.
Fears in Ukraine of a similar attack in the northern Sumy region have grown over the past three months.
Given the ongoing concern in the West about escalating war, it is likely that permission has been granted for an operation of this scale on Russian soil.
In general, few high-ranking Ukrainian figures say much about this attack.
The president’s office told us: “No comment yet.”
Although similar raids have taken place before, this is the first time that regular Ukrainian troops have been deployed in this way.
There is much more talk across the border.
Russian military channels quickly reported the attack involving hundreds of troops and several missile and drone strikes.
Local officials were also quick to report casualties and evacuations, with neighboring counties saying they were prepared to take in those forced from their homes.
A state of emergency has also been declared there.
The Russian Ministry of Defense even admitted that troops were being redeployed toward Suja, a city in the Kursk region.
At the top of the food chain was Vladimir Putin, who was publicly briefed by his security chiefs. His Foreign Ministry spokesman called the attack “barbaric” and “terrorist.”
It was a Russian response suggesting they were surprised by a war they had experienced not so long ago.
Until yesterday, Russia had steadily conquered more territory than Ukraine.
Now it has something else to think about.
The attack is already being presented by the Kremlin as evidence of why it should continue to fight its war – an invasion it still considers “defensive.”
“There are more questions than answers following the events in the Kursk region,” suggests military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov.
It is clear that Ukraine will find this operation worthwhile if it succeeds in preventing Russia from launching a major attack in the north.
“The more pressure is exerted on the aggressor who brought war to Ukraine,” President Zelensky said in his evening speech, “the closer we will get to peace.”
“Just peace through just violence.”
