Votes are being counted in South Africa after Wednesday’s general election. Ahead of the vote, opinion polls suggested the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could win less than 50% of the vote for the first time in three decades.
Growing criticism of the party that led the fight against apartheid under the late Nelson Mandela has eroded its support, raising the possibility of a coalition government.
When will we know the result?
The Electoral Commission has said the final result will be known by Sunday, June 2, but the counting started as soon as polling stations closed on Wednesday and figures will be released as counting is completed in various areas.
Most votes should be counted by the end of Thursday, but more time may be needed to verify the numbers and address any objections.
South Africans are used to knowing the results on Saturday after election day, but this time things are expected to take longer as more ballots need to be counted due to the introduction of an extra vote for the national parliament.
What happened on Wednesday?
Wednesday’s election saw long lines of voters outside polling stations across the country well into the night, with an election official in Johannesburg saying the lines were reminiscent of the historic 1994 election.
That was the moment when white minority rule ended and the ANC came to power. This was the country’s seventh democratic general election.
Nearly 28 million South Africans had registered to vote and were in the process of electing representatives to national and provincial parliaments.
What is at stake for the ANC and what are its policies?
The ANC, now led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, was under increasing pressure in the run-up to the elections.
Stubbornly high unemployment, which reached 32% last year, persistent economic inequality, allegations of corruption and frequent power outages have reduced its popularity.
High levels of violent crime – an average of 130 rapes and 80 murders per day in the last three months of 2023 – have also eroded trust in authorities.
But the ANC said it was working to resolve these issues.
And it called on people not to throw away the gains made since the end of apartheid. The party said poverty has fallen, a greater proportion of South Africans live in decent homes and access to healthcare has improved.
The ANC pledged to create millions more jobs, boost investment, support the private sector and end corruption over the next five years.
What do the opposition parties DA and EFF offer?
The main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) said the “country is in crisis”.
It wants to liberalize the economy, including a move toward greater privatization.
It has pledged to create two million new jobs, end power cuts and “halve the number of violent crimes”.
To tackle unemployment and inequality, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – the third largest party in parliament – has radical economic solutions.
The party argued that the ANC had failed to redress the racial economic imbalances of apartheid. The country plans to redistribute land to the less fortunate.
The EFF also wants to nationalize mines, banks and other key parts of the economy, arguing that the country’s wealth would then be used to benefit the majority of the population.
What about Jacob Zuma and the MK party?
Disgruntled former president Jacob Zuma – who was ousted by Mr Ramaphosa amid corruption charges he denies, and later jailed for defying a court order – is the leader of a new rival to the ANC.
The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which takes its name from the former armed wing of the ANC, added even more unpredictability to the race. It could produce a strong performance, especially in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
Before the elections, the party rejected a lawsuit from the ANC over the use of the MK name.
In a separate case, the country’s highest court banned the ex-president from running for parliament. The Constitutional Court ruled that his fifteen-month prison sentence disqualified him. However, his likeness still appeared on the ballot.
In its manifesto, the MK party said the country had taken a wrong economic turn by pursuing market-driven policies and that society had become “drift from its core values”.
Who will be the next president of South Africa?
South Africans do not vote directly for a president.
Instead, they elect the 400 members of the National Assembly, who vote for a new head of state within 30 days of the general election.
As a result, there were no presidential candidates as such, but each party leader ran his national campaign and his portrait appeared on the ballot paper.
The ANCs President Ramaphosathe DA Johannes Steenhuisen and that of the EFF Julius Malema all prominently featured.
The leader of whichever party can win a majority in the National Assembly after the elections is expected to become the next president.
How do general elections work in South Africa?
The share of seats parties are allocated in the 400-member National Assembly is directly related to their share of the vote.
Independent candidates were included for the first time in 2024.
This meant that South Africans had three votes:
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National Parliament: One for the 200 seats where only the political parties are listed on the ballot paper
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National Parliament: One for the remaining 200 seats with a different ballot paper for each of the nine provinces, showing the parties in that region and independent candidates
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Provincial Assembly: One for the independent candidates or parties in the regional legislature.
How could a coalition be formed in South Africa?
The constitution does not describe how a coalition can be formed if no party receives more than 50% of the votes.
But assuming the ANC remains the largest party, smaller groups could informally agree to support an ANC government by vote in exchange for some concessions.
Or, at the other end of the spectrum, the ANC could enter into a formal coalition with some parties, including a written agreement outlining legislative plans and the distribution of cabinet posts.
Any other party would face the same choices.
An opposition coalition has also been suggested, although analysts say this is highly unlikely.
In a pre-electoral agreement, a group of parties – led by the DA – signed the so-called Multi-Party Charter for South Africa. If they together obtain more than 50% of the seats, they have already agreed to form a coalition. The agreement does not include the EFF or the MK party.
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