NEW YORK, Sep 02 (IPS) – During Donald Trump’s presidency, the United States withdrew from several international organizations, including the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC).
Trump’s actions were motivated in part by a broader strategy, which presumably prioritized “America First” policies. Trump often cited perceived biases or inefficiencies within these organizations.
Should Trump be re-elected, he would need to be convinced not to take such measures, as they would undermine America’s leadership and influence over these organizations rather than serve them. They would also prevent Americans from leading by example and being morally superior.
While Trump will likely withdraw from many of these organizations if re-elected, when and how he will act depends on several factors.
Strategic interests
Trump’s foreign policy has often been transactional, guided by what he believes best serves America’s interests. If remaining in these organizations does not align with his perceived strategic interests, however misguided that may be, he will undoubtedly consider withdrawing from these and other UN agencies.
Political climate
The domestic and international political climate could influence his decisions. For example, if Trump enjoyed strong domestic support for withdrawing from international organizations or if geopolitical tensions required a reassessment of alliances, he could take similar actions.
Policy continuity
Trump’s previous withdrawals were prompted by his criticisms of many of these organizations, such as perceived mismanagement, bias against specific states, or shortcomings in dealing with global issues. Similar actions can be expected if his positions on these “concerns” remain unchanged.
That said, given what Trump has said and advocated in his re-election campaign, he continues to cling to his misguided idea of “America First,” when in fact it is best for America to remain a member of these international organizations, rather than withdraw from them.
If he were to take such action, it could lead to significant financial shortfalls for these organizations, given the US’s role as the largest contributor to the UN.
In 2022 the US will contributed more than $18 billion, accounting for about a third of the UN’s total funding. This substantial financial support is crucial to a range of UN operations, including peacekeeping, humanitarian aid and health initiatives.
In the event of a US withdrawal, the UN must be prepared to take several measures to limit the negative impact on these organizations.
Strengthening alliances
The UN Secretary-General should seek to build stronger coalitions with other countries to fill the financial void and help soften the impact of a US withdrawal, including fostering relationships with emerging economies and regional powers. These powers include:
- China: As the second largest contributor to the UN, China has already increased its financial commitments in recent years. In 2022, China will contributed approximately 16 percent of the UN peacekeeping budget and 15 percent of the UN’s regular budget budgetmaking it an important player.
- Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom: These countries are among the largest contributors to the UN budget, with Japan contributions about 8 percent, Germany contributes about 6 percent, and the United Kingdom contributes about 4 percent. While these countries may struggle to fully close the gap left by the U.S., they can increase their contributions to mitigate the negative impact.
- The EU: Given its commitment to multilateralism and global cooperation, the EU could collectively increase its contributions to the UN. This would provide the EU with an opportunity to assert its leadership on the world stage.
- Rising powers countries such as India and Brazil, which are growing economically, could also be encouraged to increase their contributions. This could enable these countries to gain more influence in international affairs.
While these countries and groups can increase their contributions, it is important to note that the financial gap left by the US will be difficult to completely fill. The UN will have to prioritize its programs and pursue efficiencies to cope with the reduced funding. Furthermore, the loss of US support could lead to strategic shifts within the UN, which would affect its activities and influence.
Broadening of funding sources
Organizations like UNRWA should diversify their funding sources to reduce their dependence on any one country, particularly the US, which is the largest contributor. This could mean increasing contributions from other UN member states, private donors, and charities that are specifically concerned about the plight of Palestinians.
Examples of such countries are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other oil-rich Arab countries.
Involving US policymakers
The UN should engage privately with many US policymakers to address their concerns and demonstrate the benefits of membership in these organizations, which could prevent future withdrawals by the new Trump administration. This could mean emphasizing the importance and strategic benefits of multilateral cooperation in addressing international challenges.
Reform initiatives
Addressing criticisms that led to previous withdrawals, such as perceived biases or inefficiencies, could help prevent future withdrawals. Moreover, transparent reforms and accountability measures could reassure sceptical member states about the importance and effectiveness of the organisations.
US financial support for many UN agencies should continue unabated. Those with any influence over Trump should, if re-elected, point out to him how crucial US support is to the functioning of these agencies, and also to US self-interest, consistent with Trump’s idea of “America First.”
However, given what we know about Trump, chances are high that he will not change his behavior and will continue to pursue the same short-sighted policies.
By preparing and implementing the above strategic measures, the UN and its agencies will be in a much stronger position to survive possible changes in US treatment of these organizations and in US foreign policy in general under Trump and to efficiently carry out their important missions.
Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University (NYU). He has taught courses on international negotiations and Middle East studies.
IPS UN Office
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service