BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Unauthorized migration to European Union countries has fallen significantly overall in the first eight months of this year, despite increased political rhetoric and violence against migrants and gains at the ballot box from far-right parties espousing anti-immigration policies.
However, there was a spike in migrant arrivals in the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago close to the African coast that is increasingly being used as an alternative gateway to mainland Europe.
Irregular migration dominated the European Parliament elections in June and influenced the recent state elections in eastern Germany, where a far-right party won for the first time since World War II. The German government announced this week that it would expand border controls around its territory following recent extremist attacks.
What do the numbers show?
Despite heated debates, the number of illegal border crossings at the EU’s southern borders, the region with the most illegal migration, fell by 35% between January and August, according to the latest preliminary figures from the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration.
Nearly 115,000 migrants — less than 0.03% of the EU’s population — have entered the EU this year via the Mediterranean and Atlantic routes without permission, compared with 176,252 in the same period last year, the UN said. By contrast, more than a million people, most of them fleeing the conflict in Syria, entered the EU in 2015.
Data from the EU border and coast guard agency Frontex shows a similar trend, with the number of unauthorised border crossings at the region’s southern borders down 39% this year compared to last year.
“The emergency this year is not numerical, and it was not last year either,” Flavio di Giacomo, spokesman for the IOM Mediterranean office, told The Associated Press.
Camille Le Coz, deputy director of the nonprofit Migration Policy Institute in Europe, said irregular migration “receives far too much attention compared to the scale of the problem and compared to other issues Europe should be addressing, such as climate change.”
The most common route for migrants is from North Africa, across the perilous Central Mediterranean Sea to Italy. However, around 64% fewer migrants disembarked in Italy this year than during the same period in 2023, according to figures from IOM and Frontex.
Experts say this is a result of the EU-backed repression in Tunisia And Libyawhich has a price for migrants, many of whom systematically completed eaten and dumped in the desert.
How long the downward trend will last, however, remains to be seen. Smugglers are always quick to adapt and find new routes around border controls. In the Eastern Mediterranean, the second most used route, smuggling networks are now the increasingly aggressive use of speedboats to avoid checks and attacks on islands further from the Turkish coast the central Aegean Seaaccording to the Greek authorities.
UN data shows that the number of migrants arriving in Greece by sea and land rose by 57% in the first eight months of the year.
An alarming spike in the Atlantic Ocean
Meanwhile, irregular migration from West Africa to the Canary Islands via the Atlantic Ocean, the third most used route, has more than doubled, with more than 25,500 migrants – mainly from Mali, Senegal and other West African countries – arriving in the islands as of August 31, the UN said.
Countless other migrants have disappeared along the route, where harsh winds and strong Atlantic currents work against them. Several migrant boats, carrying only the remains of Malian, Mauritanian and Senegalese citizens, have been found adrift this year as far as the Caribbean and off the coast of Brazil. Precise numbers are difficult to verify, but Spanish migrant rights group Walking Borders has reported more than 4,000 dead or missing.
The trend has Spanish authorities on high alert for the fall, when conditions in the Atlantic are most favorable for the journey. The treacherous nature of the route does not appear to have deterred potential migrants, whose ranks have swelled with people from Syria and Pakistan, rescuers said.
“There are situations that need to be addressed, such as the situation in the Canary Islands,” Le Coz acknowledged.
A humanitarian crisis
The adult migrants who make it to the Canary Islands usually keep on moving, heading for the promise of jobs and safety on mainland Spain or other European countries further north. But that’s not the case for thousands of unaccompanied minors. Under Spanish law, these young migrants must be taken into the care of local governments, leading to overcrowded reception centers and a political crisis. Earlier this year, island leaders fought unsuccessfully to have other regions of Spain share responsibility.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently traveled to three West African countries in an effort to curb migration. In Senegal, he and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye signed agreements to promote temporary work opportunities in Spain for Senegalese nationals and vocational training in Senegal. They also agreed to step up police cooperation.
No magic solutions
Despite current anti-immigration sentiment, Europe’s ageing population, falling birth rates and labour shortages have only increased the need for immigrants to maintain pensions and boost economic growth.
And as long as migrants are not given opportunities in their own countries, their exodus will continue. Add to that the growing instability and conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia that have forced millions of people to flee.
“There is no magic deterrent,” Le Coz said. “Migrants are the ones who ultimately suffer from all this: they risk their lives, they work in Europe where they face years of uncertain legal status and are vulnerable to all kinds of exploitation.”
While long-term solutions to address irregular migration, such as temporary migrant work programmes, are being implemented, they still fall short.
“That is a step in the right direction, but it needs to be done on a much larger scale and the private sector needs to be more involved,” Le Coz added.
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