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The Ukrainian army entered Russia’s Kursk region on Tuesday.
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The Kremlin initially downplayed the attack.
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But analysts say it is an embarrassment for strongman Russian President Vladimir Putin.
When Ukraine was daring cross-border attack in Russia’s Kursk region On Tuesday, the Kremlin initially downplayed the raid, attributing it to a “sabotage and reconnaissance group.”
But as the scale of the attack became clearer, with thousands of Ukrainian troops advancing to six miles into RussiaPresident Vladimir Putin rushed to contain the consequences.
In a televised meeting with acting Kursk region leader Alexei Smirnov on Thursday, Putin urged the governor to show “courage and calm” and assured civilians fleeing the fighting that help was on the way.
According to the American think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the meeting was intended to convince the Russians that the situation was under control, in order to avoid “significant domestic discontent”.
Raids like the one Ukraine carried out this week could undermine Putin’s standing and power – and the The Kremlin’s confusing response is a sign that it is concerned.
“Significant Ukrainian advances inside Russia would represent a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long efforts to establish a legacy of Russian stability, security and geopolitical revival,” the ISW said.
Ukraine’s attack surprises Russia
Ukraine’s motive for the attack, which apparently caught Russian forces by surprise, remains unclear. Kiev has not publicly commented on the operation.
This led to fierce criticism of the Kremlin from ultra-nationalist bloggers, who questioned why the Russian military was so unprepared and criticized the chaotic attempts to evacuate civilians.
Military analysts believe that Ukraine wants to deal a painful blow to Putin by shifting the war to ordinary Russians.
Ukraine may also be trying to divert Russian troops from the front lines in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, which has seen heavy fighting in recent months. It also appears to be trying to show its Western backers that it can “flip the script” and carry out bold operations after recent setbacks, according to Bryden Spurling, an analyst at the Rand Corporation.
According to Callum Fraser, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, Putin’s image as a strongman is based on his ability to protect Russians.
“Putin needs to show that Russia’s borders are secure and that the people of Russia will not ultimately suffer too much from the conflict that is happening in Ukraine,” he told Business Insider.
“Once it starts to affect people, they become motivated to actually do something about it, to secure their own livelihoods and property. That can lead them to question whether Putin is the right man for the job.”
Putin has so far managed to avoid major domestic unrest as a result of the two-year war, despite the heavy losses it has inflicted on the Russian military.
The economic impact on ordinary Russians has not been as severe as some economists had predicted. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has tightly controlled media coverage of the war, and Putin has avoided imposing unpopular military service by increasing the draft.
But the uprising of the Russian mercenary group Wagner in 2023 exposed Putin’s vulnerability to the consequences of events in Ukraine.
The Russian government lost control of the city of Rostov to rebels protesting what they saw as the failed Russian campaign. Mercenaries advanced on Moscow before the mutiny was called off.
Fraser said the Wagner uprising is likely weighing heavily on Putin’s mind as he ponders the possible consequences of the Kursk invasion.
He said the raid was partly intended to “show people in Russia and the border regions that they are not as safe as they would like to be, which could potentially lead to domestic discontent.”
Putin’s failure to protect Russia, Spurling said, is “dangerous to his image and to those around him, and that in turn could undermine the cohesion and unity of his inner circle.”
An attempt to gain influence in negotiations
There are doubts whether the already overstretched Ukrainian army can maintain the momentum of the Kursk invasion.
Ukraine is already struggling with it recruit enough troops to maintain its defensive positions on the front lines, and the very risky attack on Russia is at best met with a lukewarm response from Kiev’s main international ally, the US.
According to Maxim Alyukov, a political sociologist at King’s College London, it is unclear how long Ukraine can hold on to the conquered territory in Russia if the Kremlin launches a major operation to expel the Ukrainians.
But now that there are reports indicating that both sides in the war are willing to consider peace negotiations, Ukraine may be betting that by dealing Putin a humiliating blow, it can negotiate a deal from a position of strength.
According to Alyukov, the operation is a “bold move” aimed at sending a signal that Ukraine is still capable of harming Russia in new and unexpected ways.
But Ukraine will need to maintain the momentum to seriously undermine Putin’s power.
Read the original article at Company Insider
