The news
Ukraine claimed full control of a Russian city, the first success of a surprise offensive on Moscow’s territory.
Kiev has not yet disclosed what war aims the invasion of Russia has, but analysts have suggested that Ukraine wants to use the territorial gains as a bargaining chip to regain its own country.
SIGNALS
Sudzha could be a strategic conquest for Ukraine
Located in the Kursk region — the area targeted for Kiev’s surprise attack — Sudzha marks a strategic conquest for the Ukrainian army. The town is next to a Russian gas terminal which supplies the fuel to Europe. Independent Russian news outlet Meduza reported on August 9 that Sudzha serves as a strategic border control point for Russian gas. Control of the terminal could have financial This has major implications for Russia, as almost half of all Russian gas exports pass through this area.
Sudzha gas is supplied via Ukraine
Kiev and Moscow reached a five-year deal in 2019 that would see natural gas from Russia flow through Ukraine for large-scale export to Europe. Kiev has said it does not plan to renew that contract, but Russian state media have reported that Moscow plans to continue its exports. Only one other pipeline — the Turkish Current line running through the Black Sea — is currently operational. The Sudzha pipeline is mutually beneficial to Moscow and Kiev: Russia’s state gas company Gazprom makes money from exports and Kiev receives transit fees for transportation.
Invasion of Kursk could create ‘buffer zone’
Kiev has not yet fully explained why it launched its surprise invasion of Russia, but said the goal is to create a “buffer zone” on the border. That would prevent some Russian troops from entering Ukraine, but it is still unclear how much territory Kiev plans to seize, or how long it plans to hold it. The push is to overthrow Some Russian stories about the war, The Guardian reported: Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, criticized the “constant lies coming from our side about the weakness of the Ukrainian army.”
