TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — With his main opponents jailed or absent from the vote, Tunisia’s president has Kais Said There are few obstacles to winning re-election on Sunday, five years later anti-establishment resistance to a first term.
October 6 from the North African country presidential elections It is the third since protests led to the president’s ouster in 2011 Zine El Abidine Ben Ali – the first autocrat to fall during the Arab Spring uprisings, which also toppled leaders in Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
International observers praised the two previous competitions for meeting democratic standards. However, a series of arrests and actions taken by an election authority appointed by Saied have done so questions raised about whether this year’s race is free and fair. And opposition parties have called for a boycott.
What is at stake?
Not so long ago, Tunisia was hailed as the sole success story of the Arab Spring. Such as coups, counter-revolutions and civil wars brought the region into turmoilthe North African nation has established a new one democratic constitution and saw the leading social groups win the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating political compromises.
But the new leaders were unable to support her struggling economy and were plagued by political infighting episodes of violence and terrorism.
Against that backdrop, Saied, then 61 and a political outsider, won his first term in 2019. advanced to a second round They promise to usher in a ‘new Tunisia’ and give more power to young people and local governments.
This year’s elections will provide insight into public opinion on the trajectory of Tunisia’s fading democracy since Saied came to power.
Said’s supporters appear to have remained loyal to him and his promise to transform Tunisia. But he is not affiliated with any political party and it is unclear how deep his support goes among Tunisians.
It is the first presidential race since Saied turned the country’s politics upside down July 2021declaring a state of emergency, firing his prime minister, suspending parliament and rewriting Tunisia’s constitution, consolidating his own power.
These actions outraged pro-democracy groups and leading opposition parties, who called them a coup. But despite the anger of professional politicians and voters approved Saied’s new constitution the following year in a low-turnout referendum.
Authorities then began arresting Saied’s critics, among others journalists, lawyerspoliticians and figures from civil societyaccusing them of endangering state security and violating a controversial anti-fake news law that observers say suppresses dissent.
It emerged that fewer voters participated in the 2022 and 2023 parliamentary and local elections, amid economic problems and widespread political apathy.
Who’s running?
Many wanted to challenge Saied, but few succeeded.
Seventeen potential candidates submitted paperwork to run for Tunisia’s electoral authority only three approved: Saied, Zouhair Maghzaoui and Ayachi Zammel.
Maghzaoui is an experienced politician who has campaigned against Saied’s economic program and recent political arrests. Yet he is loathed by opposition parties for supporting Saied’s constitution and previous attempts to consolidate power.
Zammel is a businessman who is supported by politicians who are not boycotting the race. During the campaign he has has been sentenced to prison in four cases of voter fraud tied to signatures his team collected to qualify for the ballot.
Others had hoped to flee, but were prevented. The electoral authority, known as ISIE, last month rejected a court ruling ordering the reinstatement of three additional challengers.
With many arrested, detained or convicted on charges related to their political activities, Tunisia’s best-known opposition figures are also not participating.
This includes the 83-year-old leader of Tunisia’s best organized political party Ennahdathat came to power after the Arab Spring. Rachel Ghannouchico-founder of the Islamic party and former Speaker of the House of Representatives in Tunisia imprisoned since last year after criticism of Saied.
The crackdown also includes one of Ghannouchi’s most outspoken opponents: Abir Moussia right-wing parliamentarian known for his tirades against Islamists and who speaks nostalgically about Tunisia before the Arab Spring. So was the 49-year-old president of the Free Destourian Party imprisoned last year after criticism of Saied.
Other lesser-known politicians who have announced plans to run for office have done so as well also since imprisoned or convicted on similar charges.
Opposition groups have called for a boycott of the race. The National Salvation Front – a coalition of secular and Islamist parties, including Ennahda – has done so denounced the trial as a sham and questioned the legitimacy of the elections.
What are the other problems?
That of the country economy continues to be confronted big challenges. Despite Saied’s promises to chart a new course for Tunisia, unemployment has steadily risen to one of the highest in the region at 16%, with young Tunisians particularly hard hit.
Growth has been slow since the COVID-19 pandemic and Tunisia has remained dependent on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and the European Union. Today, Tunisia owes them more than $9 billion. Apart from agricultural reforms, Saied’s overarching economic strategy is unclear.
Negotiations on a $1.9 billion rescue package offered by the International Monetary Fund in 2022 have long been stalled. Saied is unwilling to accept its terms, which include restructuring indebted state-owned enterprises and cutting government wages. Some of the IMF’s provisions – including lifting subsidies for electricity, flour and fuel – would likely be unpopular among Tunisians who rely on their low costs.
Economic analysts say foreign and local investors are reluctant to invest in Tunisia due to persistent political risks and the lack of reassurances.
The severe economic problems have had a twofold impact on one of Tunisia’s most important political issues: migration. From 2019 to 2023, more and more Tunisians attempted to migrate to Europe without permission. Meanwhile, the Said government has taken a crackdown on migrants arriving from sub-Saharan Africa. got stuck in Tunisia while trying to reach Europe.
Saied passed on energy to his supporters in early 2023 accusing migrants of violence and crime and portray them as part of a plot to change the country’s demographics. The anti-migrant rhetoric led to extreme violence against migrants and a crackdown by the authorities. Last yearsecurity forces have attacked migrant communities from the coast to the capital with a series of arrests, deportation to the desert and the demolition of tent camps in Tunis and coastal cities.
Bodies keep washing up on the coast of Tunisia, while boats carrying Tunisians and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa make it only a few nautical miles before sinking.
What does it mean abroad?
Tunisia has maintained ties with its traditional Western allies, but has also forged new partnerships under Saied.
Like many populist leaders who have taken power worldwide, Saied emphasizes sovereignty and freeing Tunisia from what he calls “foreign dictates.” He has insisted that Tunisia will not become a “border guard” for Europe, which has sought deals with him to better police the Mediterranean.
Tunisia and Iran have lifted visa requirements and announced plans to strengthen trade ties in May. It has also accepted millions in loans as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative to build hospitals, stadiums and ports.
Yet European countries remain Tunisia’s main trading partners and their leaders have maintained productive ties with Said, welcoming agreements to manage migration as a “model” for the region.
Saied has spoken out fervently in support of the Palestinians as war has gripped the Middle East and has opposed moves to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel.
