An EHang EH216-S passenger-carrying electric unmanned aerial vehicle in Hefei, China, on Friday, March 29, 2024. The EH216-S, priced at 2.16 million yuan ($300,000), has eight arms extending from the center and is equipped with 16 propellers, each with its own electric motor. Credit – Qilai Shen—Bloomberg/Getty Images
aAfter 27 years of developing aircraft, my involvement with electric airplane started suddenly one afternoon in February 2017. I was asked to comment on the eHang 184a Chinese passenger drone that could theoretically provide automated taxi services in Dubai. The oft-cited portion of the resulting article will likely appear in my obituary.
“Dr. Wright added that he would not volunteer for an early flight. ‘I would have to be brought on board kicking and screaming.'”
My first contact with Chinese flying cars, or electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), has proven telling in the years since. China has been riding high on the emerging technology. One of the biggest developments came in April when the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) a “production certificate” awarded to EHang’s EH216-S, the first time an eVTOL has received such approval. The move opens the door to a commercial rollout. But other companies have their eyes on the skies. The CarryAll eVTOL from AutoFlight, another Chinese company, obtained a “type certificate” in March from CAAC, a major step toward regulatory approval. Other homegrown Chinese competitors such as XPeng And Taxi also create buzz.
China currently accounts for about 50% of the world’s eVTOL models. The government has also pledged to provide economic “demonstration zonesalthough the details remain unclear.
It is clear that China is leading the eVTOL race. Why is this, and will it continue to lead? To answer this question, we need to consider the two major challenges that all competitors in the field face: one is technology, the other is people.
The first challenge is simple to state: new battery technology unlocked the eVTOL era, but is now the biggest limitation. Batteries can still store and deliver only a small fraction of the energy of gasoline, our old friend and foe. Until there is a new breakthrough in battery technology, the industry will be limited to premium services in niche applications. In other words, when and if a new battery wave sweeps across the industry and scatters the competition, the party that rides that wave will take the much bigger prize. China is well positioned herebut perhaps the West, with its longer experience with conventional aircraft, could take the lead again.
Now to the second, more elusive, challenge. China is the undisputed king of small-scale consumer dronesbut there is a huge gap between them and conventional passenger aircraft. This is in an area that is dear to most of us every time we board a flight: reliability. How big is that gap? The answer is about a factor of 1 millionand the methods and technology to bridge this “six zero gap” are only obtained with decades of experience. Here the West is certainly leading the way with its mature aviation industries and governing bodies.
Can China bridge this crisis?hole of six zeros”? Probably, in due time. I point here to the example of the Comac C919, a passenger plane that bears an uncanny resemblance to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737the most intensely competitive segment of the aviation market. The birth of the C919 was long and painful, supported by the enormous weight of the Chinese state. Despite a bumpy ride, the C919 has survived and is now incoming passenger service.
When it comes to eVTOLs, the new technologies of this brave new world act as a great equalizer, with all sides rushing to come up with a whole new set of questions to ask, further undermining the West’s power. historical advantage in aviation. This point goes further: the history of the West can sometimes be a hindrance, because there is a legitimate temptation to try to judge these new machines in terms that have been created around familiar designs such as helicopters and light aircraft, and China could use this as another opportunity to move forward.
The idea of flying cars is very niceOf course, and I’m glad to live in a world where these machines exist. But I don’t think they represent the future of mass personal air transport, other than a niche slightly larger than today’s helicopters for the wealthy. The industry will probably look more like our current budget airlines, with “sub-regional” airlines operating out of fairly large public spaces, and look less glamorous than I’d like, with price searches on booking sites, queues and baggage checks.
Finally, the difficulties associated with creating eVTOLs could distract from a related wave that exploits the same technologies and plays to China’s existing strengths: unmanned aviation.
The conflict in Ukraine has provided a brutal demonstration of the huge potential here, with attacks being launched deep into the area from both sides. The combination of repurposing passenger eVTOLs for cargo transport is a good option for electric aviation. I am more looking forward to the flying delivery vans of the future than taxis.
Pay attention to this (air)space…
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