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Israel and Ukraine have endured repeated ballistic missile attacks.
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Ballistic missiles can strike with little to no warning time.
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Ballistic missiles are deadly, but there is plenty of evidence that these weapons alone cannot win a war.
The fireworks were impressive. Explosions, flames and fiery streaks through the air.
But after launch hundreds of ballistic missiles on Israel in two separate barrages, what does Iran have to show for it? In the April attack – which included 300 missiles and drones – most were intercepted by forces from the US, Israel, Britain and Jordan. The attack of 180 ballistic missiles in October resulted in a larger percentage of missiles penetrating defenses. Nevertheless, those who made it through appear to have done relative damage minor damage: some craters, one partially collapsed school buildingand multiple attacks on one Israeli air base that is still operational.
Despite all of Iran’s threats, Israel’s military, infrastructure and public morale remain intact. This resilience is similar to that of Ukraine, where the population has survived for two years Russian missile attacks but continues to fight.
All of this begs the question: Is the danger of ballistic missiles overhyped? The issue has become more important than ever. Fifty years ago, the US and the Soviet Union had most of the world’s missile arsenal. Nowadays there are 31 countries which have ballistic missiles, plus non-state groups such as Hezbollah. With so many missiles in the world, they will likely be used in future wars.
The threat of ballistic missiles – which follow a ballistic trajectory, rise to the edge of the atmosphere or space and then fall like a cannonball – dates back 80 years, to just before the dawn of the Space Age. In 1944, Nazi Germany unleashed the V-2considered the world’s first guided ballistic missile. Nearly 3,000 V-2s were launched against targets in Western Europe, about half of them against Britain. The British public was no stranger to death from the air: they had already endured the bombers of the Blitz, and the V-1 buzz bombs that were the precursor to today’s cruise missiles. But at least those weapons could be detected, giving people time to take cover or air defenses to shoot them down. The V-2 was slightly different: it rose 60 miles to the edge of space and crashed into its target without warning.
Hitler promised the German people that the ‘wunderwaffe’ (wonder weapons) would bring victory. Instead, the V-2 consumed significant resources but harmed neither the enemy’s war potential nor popular support for the war. One problem was accuracy. The Germans estimate that the probable circling error – a standard measurement of how close 50% of munitions end up to a target – is almost three miles for the V-2. In 1945, American B-17 bombers had a CEP of a quarter mile.
But the real problem was the load. The V-2’s warhead consisted of only one ton of high explosive, from a weapon that could only be used once. A B-17 Flying Fortress carried four tons of bombs, a British Lancaster could drop seven tons – and these planes could fly dozens of missions. Granted, there were costs – and risks – for the crew. But the US and Britain launched attacks of a thousand bombers each: even though the accuracy was far from perfect, the sheer number of bombs destroyed cities and hampered critical infrastructure such as oil refineries by the end of the war. But even this huge operation failed to break German morale.
In the 1980s the “War of the Cities”, when Iraq and Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at each other’s urban areas. Despite tens of thousands of civilian casualties, morale did not collapse in either country and the war between Iran and Iraq lasted for eight years. Backed by Iran in 2015 Houthi rebels in Yemen began a bombing campaign against Saudi Arabia, which also involved ballistic missiles. While this caused some damage to oil facilities, this was intended as political coercion against Saudi intervention in Yemen rather than an all-out attack on the kingdom.
It’s not that conventional ballistic missiles aren’t deadly, especially the modern versions. The early gyroscopic guidance systems on the V-2 have been replaced by more precise ones inertial conduction: A Minuteman ICBM has a reported CEP of about 40 meters, which is fine for a warhead, but not for a precision attack on a small target. For advanced missile powers such as America and Russia, inertial guidance can be supplemented with other systems, such as GPS, and an on-board radar linked to a map of the terrain. For example, the US-made ATACMS GPS guided missiles have proven quite accurate in Ukraine.
Ironically, this can lead to what one expert calls the ‘ “precision paradox.” Accuracy does not always equal effectiveness: if a smart bomb misses its target, follow-up attacks to complete the mission can actually cause as much collateral damage as unguided weapons.
And therein lies the attraction of ballistic missiles for less technologically advanced countries and militant groups. Even if not accurate, the mere threat of long-range missile bombardment can coerce or deter an opponent. With an estimated 3,000 ballistic missiles, Iran launches one variety of designs with varying accuracy, some based on the Soviet Scud or Nodong from North Korea. Tehran claims so latest rockets have a CEP of approximately 65 feet, a suspect claim given the observed inaccuracy of some rockets during the attack in April. A CEP of less than 30 meters can be enough to damage extensive facilities such as air bases, ports and oil refineries. Against a specific target, such as a specific building, that may not be enough. And to achieve that goal, these weapons must get past increasingly capable air defense systems PatriotAegis, Arrow and Iron Dome.
Even then, the question remains: Can ballistic missiles win a war? This echoes a debate from World War II, when Allied bomber chiefs argued that bombing German cities would win the war without the need for boots on the ground. But even after the Allies were dropped 2.7 million tons of the bombs in Europe, the Third Reich only surrendered when Allied tanks were in the streets of Berlin. Nor did more than 7.5 million tons of ammunition force North Vietnam to abandon its war against South Vietnam.
Iranian missiles have not stopped Israel from continuing its campaigns Lebanon and Gaza, and that’s not likely either. Iran’s 3,000 missiles sound pretty impressive. But even if they were all launched at Israel at the same time, some would malfunction at launch, some would be intercepted, and still others – how many we can only guess – would miss their target. Ultimately, the number of explosive landings on Israeli soil would be fewer than a single Allied bomber in World War II.
The proliferation of ballistic missiles is a danger. With precise guidance systems, they can damage vital targets. With less accuracy, they can serve as weapons of terror against cities. But they cannot win a war alone.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine and other publications. He has an MA in Political Science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him further Tweet And LinkedIn.
Read the original article Business insider