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The shipping lanes off the coast of Yemen have recently seen a surge in successful Houthi attacks.
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In recent weeks they have rammed several commercial ships and even sunk one.
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The Iranian-backed rebels are also sending their drone boats out to sea more often.
The Houthis have carried out a series of successful attacks on commercial vessels in recent weeks – even sinking one – and have demonstrated that they can effectively attack targets with drone boats, indicating that they are getting smarter with their attacks.
Experts say these highly destructive feats show the Houthis are learning from their actions many months of regular attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and continue to receive assistance from Iran, their main supplier of military and financial aid.
“They’re learning and getting more support,” Archer Macy, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, told Business Insider.
‘A useful disguise’ for the Houthis
According to a June 13 report, Houthi attacks damaged at least 19 commercial ships between December and March report published by the Defense Intelligence Agency. Nearly all ships were attacked by missiles, although some were hit by one-way attack drones.
The Houthis then lost a crucial mission asset. A Iranian cargo ship suspected of providing targeted information and intelligence sailed home. The MV Behshad spent months in the waters off Yemen, but left the area in mid-April as Tehran braced for Israel to retaliate against its unprecedented attack.
In the weeks that followed, the pace of successful Houthi attacks slowed. In April and May, a total of three commercial vessels reported being hit by anti-ship ballistic missiles launched by the rebels. list of incidents compiled by Military Times.
June, however, was a different story.
The Houthis started the month promise to escalate their attacks in the wake of American and British attacks in Yemen. The rebels have since attacked at least five commercial ships, finding similar success in their targeting as in the early months of their campaign.
Some incidents have also revealed dangerous new tactics. Most notably, on June 12, the Houthis attacked a commercial ship in the Red Sea with a drone boat loaded with explosives. For the first time since they started attacking merchant shipping in November.
Unlike the advanced naval drones which have been central to the war in Ukraine, which has destroyed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet rough looking weapon was little more than a small, slow-moving vessel manned by two dummies that resembled an ordinary fishing vessel. As such, the vessel managed to cross 65 nautical miles navigate the shipping lanes without being stopped.
“There are so many small boats in that stretch of water, which is actually why it’s so difficult to stop the smuggling of missiles and drones into the Houthis,” said Brian Carter, a Salafist Jihadism team leader and Houthis analyst. The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, BI told.
“You can’t stop every small boat. So I think it’s a useful disguise for them,” he said.
The first drone boat strike on the commercial bulk carrier MV Tutor caused flooding and damage to the engine room. Hours later, a Houthi missile hit the ship. The double tap attack forced the crew to do so leave the shipand it eventually sank, becoming the second ship to do so since the attacks began last fall.
That same week, the Houthis fired two anti-ship missiles, hitting the MV Verbena in the Gulf of Aden. Less than 24 hours later, the bulk carrier arrived was hit by another missilemarking the second double-tap strike of the week. The ship’s crew leave the ship because of the damage caused by the attacks.
British security company Ambrey said The attacks on the Tutor and the Verbena, in addition to successful attacks on two other vessels in the days before, were an indication of a “significant increase in effectiveness” of Houthi operations.
“With every Houthi attack, the Houthis probably learn something about what works and what doesn’t,” Carter said. “If you think about how a military organization operates, they certainly learn from the different attack packages they use.”
Double taps and drone boats
In addition to the recent double-tap attacks, the Houthis’ ability to learn from past attacks is visible in their drone boat operations.
During the first few months of this year, US forces destroyed Houthi drone boats in Yemen almost every time the rebels tried to launch them into shipping lanes. However, in June the rebels succeeded more than a dozen drone boats in the water — far more than in any previous month.
And their ability to do so ultimately led to the catastrophic attack on the Tutor.
Experts say the increase in drone boat attacks indicates that the Houthis are able to respond to US attacks in Yemen and adjust their operations accordingly.
That could mean hiding them better or choosing more efficient launch sites. It also suggests that the rebels could now have a larger stockpile of such weapons, giving them more launch options and thus a greater chance of eventually hitting something.
“I think it’s more likely that they have more, so they’re more willing to use them,” said Macy, now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project. “They’re not such precious items, and they’ve probably just gotten better at it.”
It is unclear what all the Houthi drone boats look like, but the small fishing vessel that struck the Tutor is a cheap, easily available craft that can be converted into a weapon.
It’s difficult not only to prevent the rebels from obtaining their “low-tech, cheap” attack tools, but also to stop them from launching attacks, says Alex Stark, a policy researcher who studies Middle East security at the RAND Corporation. BI.
These attacks pose an “ongoing problem for which there is no clear or workable solution,” she added.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby acknowledged this week that the Houthis have been more successful with their recent attacks, though he noted that most of their attacks have still failed.
U.S. and coalition naval forces are routinely ordered to destroying Houthi missiles and drones — both before and after launch — and many of these threats have fallen by the wayside.
“They miss a lot more than they hit,” Kirby told reporters on Wednesday.
He said the US will continue to ‘degrade its capabilities’ American troops it is said that they do this through the consistent strikes in Yemen — but warned that the Houthis continue to be supplied and resourced by Iran, as has been the case for years.
“The Houthis, who are no more or less willing than they were six months ago, have been given more opportunity and more support,” Macy said.
Recent successes by the Houthis come amid changes in the US naval presence in the region. The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which more than seven months of struggle the rebels recently left the Red Sea, but they will be replaced soon by the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group.
US officials have warned that the conflict no signs of slowing downand the growing financial toll has raised questions about the long term sustainability of the anti-Houthi mission.
Experts say that despite the material effects of the Houthi campaign, which has caused disruptions to a key global shipping route, the rebels are still eager to use their attacks to boost their message and legitimacy. The Houthis characterize their campaign as a response to the war between Israel and Hamas, but they are also trying to position themselves as a major player in Iran’s proxy network.
“I think they’ve found that this tactic is very successful for them and very difficult to deter,” Stark said.
Broader regional de-escalation may be the only way to address the problem sustainably, but it may not solve it permanently, she said. “I don’t think the Houthis are willing to stop these kinds of attacks forever.”
Read the original article Business insider
