In the recent European elections, far-right parties made significant progress in some but all European Union (EU) countries. They made gains in countries such as Austria, Germany and France, where as a result early parliamentary elections were called. In other countries, however, far-right parties stood still or lost support, while green and left-wing parties made gains. Overall, the EU’s mainstream conservative bloc retained its leading position, but the results raise questions about the direction of EU policy on issues such as climate and migration.
CIVICUS discusses the results and implications of recent European Parliament elections with Philipp Jäger, Policy Fellow at the Jacques Delors Centre, an independent, non-partisan think tank focused on European policy processes and outcomes.
What are the main lessons from the recent European Parliament elections?
As predicted by the polls, there was a shift to the right, with around a quarter of seats going to the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) groups. Most parties in these two groups, including the Italian post-fascist Brothers of Italy, the French National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD) – banished of ID just before the elections – are extreme right-wing populist parties.
However, the right’s gains did not lead to a landslide victory and the political center managed to maintain a majority. The conservative European People’s Party (EPP) won the most votes, improving its performance in the last elections. Votes for the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) remained stable, while the Liberals (Renew) and the Greens lost a significant number of seats.
In the outgoing parliament, the EPP, Renew and S&D formed an informal coalition and legislation was generally passed with their support. This time they still have a majority, albeit a smaller one, with around 403 seats out of 720. Together with the Greens, the political center still has a comfortable majority to pass laws. A centrist coalition emerges as the most likely path forward, which would imply some degree of continuity.
However, the EPP has done so indicated that it is open to informal cooperation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy on specific issues in order to obtain a centre-right majority. There is virtually no possibility of a centre-left majority. Since all plausible majorities are involved, the EPP is in a strong position. Whether legislation moves to the right will therefore largely depend on the extent to which the EPP moves in that direction.
The election results are also crucial in determining the next President of the European Commission, as the European Parliament must confirm the European Council’s appointment. Current President Ursula von der Leyen will most likely be elected for a new term, supported by the votes of the EPP, S&D, Renew and possibly the Greens.
What explains the uneven performance of the far right?
Right-wing parties made significant gains in France and Germany, the two largest EU member states, which together elect a quarter of all European parliamentarians. In France, Marine Le Pen’s RN party won 30 seats, twice as many as President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party. In Germany, the AfD won fifteen seats, more than all three parties currently in government.
The Greens suffered significant losses in France and Germany, accounting for 14 of the 19 seats the group lost. In Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party of Austria, part of the ID group, emerged as the largest party.
However, in Denmark, Finland and Sweden, far-right parties won fewer votes than expected, while green and left-wing parties made gains. Meanwhile in Poland, the ruling coalition recorded a solid result and successfully fended off a challenge from the right-wing Law and Justice party.
This underlines the fact that the EU elections are not one election, but 27 different elections at national level. As a result, voting in EU elections is often more about national issues than EU policy. Generalizing about the EU does not do justice to the diversity of its member states, where local factors often play a role.
Nevertheless, it appears that a significant proportion of EU voters are concerned about their livelihoods. They are not necessarily negatively affected yet, but they may fear for the future. One reason may be that they are exposed to events over which they have little control, such as the Russian war in Ukraine, climate change, immigration and inflation – the elements that provide fertile ground for the growth of extreme parties.
What are the possible consequences for the national governments that have suffered the greatest losses?
The results of these elections could have major consequences for national governments. In France, Macron has dissolved the National Assembly and called early parliamentary elections. This is a very risky decision because it could give the far right a decisive victory. If his party does poorly, Macron risks becoming a lame-duck president, unable to push through domestic legislation.
In Germany, the conservative Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria, currently in opposition, scored strong results, while the three governing parties together won only about 36 percent. Combined with the AfD’s strong performance, the results are seen as a damning indictment of the government. The results in eastern Germany, where the AfD won more votes than any other party, are a harbinger of state elections later this year.
In Hungary, a challenge has emerged for incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Are right-wing populist partyFidesz scored the lowest EU election result ever.
These political developments at national level have implications for EU policy-making, given the role of the Council in the legislative process. With less political support at home, the French and German governments are less likely to push the EU agenda in the Council, as they have routinely done in the past.
What is the chance of European Green Deal be reversed?
A major transformation of our economies, supported consistently over the next twenty years, will be required to achieve climate goals and successfully implement the EU Green Deal. Additional public funding will be essential to boost the costly process of decarbonizing the industry. Recent election results suggest we may lack the ambition and political will to do this. If the shift to the right continues and limits further climate action, the EU risks failing to meet its overarching climate goals.
However, a rollback of existing environmental policies in the next five years is unlikely. Although some targeted adjustments can be made to reduce administrative burdens, core climate legislation such as the Emissions trading system it is unlikely to be dismantled. Yet there is a risk that the ambition level is jeopardized under the guise of reducing administrative burden.
On climate, as with other important issues such as immigration, top staff will play a key role. For example, Spanish Deputy Minister Teresa Ribera, an outspoken supporter of climate action, is a candidate for the role of climate commissioner. A leader of her stature would be well placed to defend the Green Deal in difficult circumstances. In the coming weeks, as von der Leyen pursues the Council nomination, political negotiations will intensify as the parties compete to place their candidates in key positions.
How do you see the future of the EU?
The future of the EU as we know it cannot be taken for granted. Although the European Parliament’s general shift to the right signals a changing political landscape, the centre-right is likely to retain control over most legislation. However, we may see more cooperation between the centre-right and the far-right on specific issues such as migration.
The situation is somewhat different in the European Council, where decisions require unanimity or qualified majority voting. Although the elections did not change the composition, they weakened the governments of France and Germany and strengthened Italy. This is very relevant because small groups of governments, or individual governments, can block legislation or use their votes to extract concessions. EU-skeptical states or destructive forces such as the Hungarian government have often used their veto power.
The rise of Eurosceptic, right-wing governments in key EU states such as Italy, Slovakia, The Netherlands and Austria, which is holding elections soon, could further fuel anti-EU sentiment. If the number of far-right, anti-EU governments increases, they will quickly gain more influence in the Council. While this scenario may not lead to the dissolution of the EU, it could result in an EU in which consensus and common action become increasingly difficult.
Contact the Jacques Delors Center via his website or Instagram page and follow @DelorsBerlin And @ph_jaeg on Twitter.
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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service