According to initial forecasts, France’s far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) appears to have a clear lead in the first round of snap national elections for control of the lower house.
President Emmanuel MacronThe centrist alliance Ensemble (Together), led by his Renaissance party, appeared to finish in third place in the first round of voting, according to preliminary results reported by broadcasters TF1 and France 2 shortly after polls closed on Sunday.
The RN, along with its far-right allies, won 34% to 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing alliance New Popular Front was in second place with 28.1% to 29.1%.
Macron’s Ensemble came third with 20.3% against 21.5%, according to the broadcasters.
How many seats the blocs will receive in the National Assembly will only be decided during the second round of the elections on July 7.
The result is almost certain to be a bitter defeat for Macron, who had gambled that early elections would increase the relative majority of his party and its allies in the lower house.
That now seems highly unlikely. If, according to the predictions, neither side wins an absolute majority, France will face tough negotiations to form a coalition government.
Security forces in France have braced for possible unrest in some of the country’s major cities on the night of the first round of voting.
According to initial predictions, Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populists and their allies could become the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. However, they would fall short of an absolute majority with 289 seats.
The far left could also make gains and reach 125 to 200 seats. Macron’s supporters risk falling back to just 60 to 100 seats.
However, it is difficult to say exactly how the seats will be distributed.
Before the second round of voting, the parties can still forge local alliances that will influence the outcome of the elections.
Candidates who win an absolute majority in the first round are elected in the assembly. In most constituencies, however, the winner will not emerge until after the second round on 7 July.
Possible problems for Macron
Macron called early elections after National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, made big gains in the European Parliament elections early this month.
Macron’s term runs until 2027 and his office is not at stake, but the results could have major consequences for the rest of his term and reshape French politics.
If the RN wins a majority in the 577-member National Assembly, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from its ranks to ensure a stable cabinet.
Such an outcome would have serious consequences.
The National Assembly is one of the two French chambers of parliament. It is involved in legislation and can overthrow the government with a motion of no confidence.
If a bloc other than Macron’s centrist camp were to win an absolute majority, Macron would be de facto forced to appoint a prime minister from his ranks. This would be a so-called cohabitation.
Macron’s power would be significantly reduced and the prime minister would gain relative power.
The right-wing nationalists explicitly strive to win the elections and take on government responsibility. RN leader Bardella becomes prime minister, replacing Macron’s incumbent Attal.
Europe is watching
The elections are being followed with interest in Brussels and Berlin.
German companies are concerned about the consequences of the elections if the extreme right or extreme left comes to power.
“When analysing economic policy announcements from the right and the left, German and French companies come to the same conclusion: France’s attractiveness would suffer,” said Patrick Brandmaier, director of the Franco-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, in Paris.
Macron’s second and final term ends in 2027. A sharp decline in support for his Renaissance-led bloc will certainly limit his effectiveness.
Le Pen of the National Rally is seen as a serious contender in the next presidential elections.
