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Ukraine faces the disturbing prospect of gradually losing ground to larger Russian forces.
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But with the attack on the Russian region of Kursk, the country regained the initiative.
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Ukraine can build on this by “confronting the Russians with dilemmas that they must resolve,” one expert said.
In early August, it appeared that Ukraine would remain on the defensive as Russian attacks slowly but surely led to a retreat.
But it is a successful new Kursk Offensive has done more than seize 480 square miles of Russian territory and humiliate Putin. After nearly a year of grim defensive warfare, the Kursk operation has also allowed Ukraine take the initiative and force Moscow to dance to Kiev.
Ukraine had a choice between shoring up its defenses in the east to fend off continued Russian attacks in the Donetsk region or launching its own offensive northeast toward Kursk, George Barros, a Russian military expert for the U.S. Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider.
“I’m sure historians will argue for decades to come whether that combat power could have been better spent defending the east, compared to what it was doing in the Kursk campaign,” Barros said. “I think there’s a legitimate argument to be had, but generally the best principles of war are that it’s better not to sit on your back and take a beating forever. The Ukrainians have now contested the initiative. The Russians no longer have the initiative in the entire theater, as they did for most of last year.”
In April, Barros told BI that Ukraine had to find a way to regain the initiative to keep Russia off balance and deprive Moscow of the luxury of amassing overwhelming forces at a time and place of its choosing. Rather than risking everything on one major offensive — as Ukraine did in 2023, which ultimately failed — the better option would be a series of smaller offensives against weak points in the Russian line. Over time, limited attacks could cumulatively erode Russian morale and resources.
While it is too early to judge the overall success of the Kursk operation, it is unlikely that it resulted in massive losses for Russia or forced the Kremlin to abandon its operation. Donetsk offensiveWhat it has done is embarrass Russian leader Vladimir Putin by puncturing the aura of security that Russians feel, and perhaps more importantly, it has forced the rigid Russian commanders into the kind of improvisational warfare they have difficulty with. It could also be a bargaining chip in future negotiations if the Ukrainian fighters can hold on to it.
Current indications are that Ukraine may be digging in to consolidate its position, rather than expanding. But this still leaves Kiev with the dilemma of managing its limited resources to maintain a salient in the Russian lines, while still defending vital areas such as Kharkov and the south. That means Ukraine needs to find an economic way to keep up the pressure on Russia without losing more of its own territory.
“The Ukrainians have the initiative in the northern part of the theater; the Russians retain the initiative in the east and the south,” Barros said. “To retain the initiative, the Ukrainians must continue to attack the front line, either at Kursk or in separate areas of the front, in a way that presents the Russians with dilemmas that they must resolve. The Ukrainians need time, manpower, more artillery ammunition, and ideally looser rules of engagement so that they can ATACMS (battlefield missiles) in Russia, partly to bring about the effects of the air strikes on the battlefield while Russian reinforcements move toward Kursk.”
At the very least the Kursk attack has complicated Moscow’s strategic calculations. So far, Russia has not felt compelled to vigorously defend much of the 600-mile front line, allowing Russia to mass troops in sectors such as Donetsk. If the Operation Kursk If in the end it achieved no more than forcing Russia to defend its borders with token surveillance forces, as at Kursk, then this would still be an achievement.
“It is unclear what the next Ukrainian move will be,” Barros said. “We are seeing a lot of strange and so far largely unsubstantiated reports of Ukrainian attacks all over the area, from Polohy on the Zaporizhia line, to near Zabrama near Bryansk and elsewhere in Belgorod. The Ukrainians are keeping the Russian command on edge at the moment.”
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter And LinkedIn.
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