WASHINGTON DC/OXFORD, Oct 9 (IPS) – How will Israel respond to the recent barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles? ‘Strategic patience’ is the best course. Israel has its hands full with Hamas and Hezbollah. This is not the time to escalate another major war with Iran, which could have nuclear consequences.
Israeli intelligence is still chafing over its failure to prevent Hamas’ attack on October 7, which killed 1,200 Israelis. In the year since Hamas attacked, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched operations that killed 41,000 Palestinians.
The response was brutal but ineffective. Israel failed to capture Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or secure the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages. A humanitarian catastrophe led to famine and the displacement of more than 2 million people.
The IDF has since taken a major step toward redeeming its tarnished reputation by deterring Iran’s missile attacks. The ‘iron dome’ repelled 190 ballistic missiles fired by Iran last week. Israel repulsed another attack on April 13 involving 300 rockets and attack drones, which caused little damage.
Iran was embarrassed by the sequence of events, which went far beyond the failed missile attacks. I know from Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister, that Persian pride is important to Iranians. Iran has faced many setbacks in the past year. President Ibrahim Raisi was killed in a violent helicopter crash.
Masoud Pezeshkian, who supports involvement with the United States, received a majority of votes and became the president of Iran. The result was a rebuke to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his theocratic regime.
No event has affected Iran more than the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. Nasrallah was a friend of Iran and served as Iran’s most steadfast proxy for more than thirty years. Nasrallah was killed in an airstrike in Beirut by 2,000-pound bunker bombs that destroyed the Dahiyeh neighborhood of southern Beirut.
The airstrike was another humiliation after Israel’s sabotage of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies, which killed dozens of Hezbollah commanders and disabled its communications system.
Hezbollah’s mythical reputation for battlefield prowess was shattered. Hezbollah was the most important Iranian ally in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Nasrallah fought ISIS, defended Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s civil war, and did the regime’s dirty work around the world.
Fearing his own assassination, Khamenei was transferred to a secure location. He appeared in time for Friday prayers to defend Iran’s missile attacks on Israel as “correct, logical and legal” and to condemn Israel’s “astonishing crimes.”
Nasrallah’s death was a major blow to the Iranian regime. Iran was further humiliated by the killing of Ismail Haniya, a senior Hamas figure who stayed in an official guesthouse while attending Raisi’s funeral in Tehran.
Netanyahu warned that no place in the Middle East is safe from Israeli security forces. He was right. Moreover, economic sanctions have taken their toll on the Iranians. Sanctions relief is a distant dream as US and G7 allies tighten Iran’s economy even further.
Relations between Israel and Iran are at a crossroads. President Joe Biden has urged Netanyahu to consider “alternatives” to attacking Iranian nuclear sites or destroying Iran’s oil infrastructure. There is an alternative conflict escalation.
Netanyahu and Khamenei should consider a new approach now that the shadow war is public. Diplomacy would require assurances from Israel that it will not launch a first strike against Iran. In turn, Iran must guarantee that its nuclear program will not be used as a weapon.
Discreet talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency would advance safeguards, including on-site inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites and the reactivation of electronic surveillance. Israel will certainly continue its operations in Gaza. Israel will hunt Sinwar until he is eliminated. It cannot tolerate another October 7.
In Lebanon, Israel managed to kill Nasrallah and eliminate half of Hezbollah’s 150,000 rockets. The ground operation in southern Lebanon cannot be of indefinite duration. Having a failed state on Israel’s northern border would result in continued instability and risks.
Regional progress would be impossible with a new front between Israel and Iran. Strategic patience means that Israel will bide its time until there is a chance for diplomatic progress. Diplomacy and de-escalation are preferable to endless war.
David L Phillips is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program and a Visiting Research Scholar at the University of Oxford.
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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service