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Russia will lose 1.8 million troops if it takes four oblasts in Ukraine, the UK’s army chief has said.
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Moscow has designated Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia as its own territory.
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But the current pace means it will take five years to be successful, said General Sir Roly Walker.
Russia will likely need 1.8 million wounded and killed over five years to achieve its goal of fully capturing four major Ukrainian regions, the new commander in chief of the British army has said.
According to British media, General Sir Roly Walker based his estimate on the “current rate of deaths and injuries” faced by Moscow’s troops in Ukraine.
He was answering questions on Sunday at the 2024 Land Warfare Conference, organised by the British think tank Royal United Services Institute.
“That probably puts them well over 1.5 million people — victims — to achieve that with untold billions in lost equipment,” Walker said, per The Times of London.
“If they continue like this, it will probably take the Russians five years to achieve their minimum goals in the four oblasts,” he added, referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.
All four regions are partially under Russian control and are in a stalemate, serving as eastern and southern fronts in the war after Ukraine repelled the Kremlin’s initial northern push against Kiev and Kharkov.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin declared the four oblasts part of its country’s territory in September 2022and gaining full control over these territories was one of Moscow’s main war and negotiating goals.
Ukraine is adamant that it will not cede any of these territories, two of which, Donetsk and Luhansk, have been home to separatist factions for years.
According to Sky NewsWalker stressed that a prolonged war would be devastating for both sides.
“Russia should be concerned about more than the loss of 1.5 to 1.8 million people for part of Ukraine, given the current situation in the world,” he said, according to the outlet.
“So the big question is whether the Ukrainian armed forces can maintain and sustain the defenses that they have,” he added.
Russia has been largely silent about its losses in the war, but Western estimates indicate that casualty figure as high as 1,000 soldiers injured or killed daily.
British intelligence said in May that Moscow had lost more than 500,000 troops in the war, later estimating that In the months that followed, 70,000 soldiers lost their lives.
Meanwhile, Putin said in June that almost 700,000 Russians Fighting is still going on in Ukraine.
walkera former SAS officer who eventually became director of special forces, took up his new post as chief of the general staff on June 15.
On Sunday he said the UK must be ready to go to war within three years, according to the BBC.
The British Army is aiming to double firepower by 2027 and triple capacity by 2030.
Walker is particularly concerned that Russia could retaliate against the UK for its support for Kiev, regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends.
“It doesn’t matter how it ends. I think Russia will come out of it objectively weaker, or absolutely weaker, but still very, very dangerous and looking for some form of retaliation for what we did to help Ukraine,” he said, according to the BBC.
“The thing is, when you think they’re gone, they come back en masse to take revenge,” he told Sky News.
Analysts fear that Russia can survive Ukraine’s defense through aggressive recruitment campaigns and a defense industry running at full capacity.
Russia has poured 40% of national expenditure on defense and security, effectively putting the economy on a warpath.
Read the original article at Business insider
