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Russia has its eye on Ukrainian airfields before the first Ukrainian F-16s arrive.
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According to experts, Russia is concerned about the boost the plane is likely to give to Ukraine.
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According to one expert, Russian forces will “attack every F-16 base they can find.”
Russia is already targeting Ukrainian airfields ahead of the first F-16 fighter jets air warfare is coming to the country, and air warfare experts told Business Insider that this is because the country is concerned about what Ukraine could achieve if it had these planes.
Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium have promised Ukraine dozens of F-16s. The exact number to be delivered in the first wave is not publicly known.
The F-16s, the first of which are expected to arrive this summer, will be more advanced than the Soviet-era aircraft Ukraine has used so far. since Russia launched its invasion.
Ukraine has not yet confirmed where it will keep its F-16s, but Russia said After a recent airstrike that targeted airfields, it is believed that Ukraine will use them to house aircraft.
In recent weeks, Russian attacks on several Ukrainian bases have been recorded.
This includes Russia to claim to have attacked the Mirgorod air base in Ukraine, 160 kilometers from the border with Russia, destroying five Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets.
Ukraine confirmed the attack and said there were some losses, “but not as many as the enemy claims.”
Michael Clarke, an expert on Russia and Ukraine and a national security adviser to the United Kingdom, said Russia “has serious concerns about the F-16s because of their capabilities, there is no doubt about that.”
He also warned that Russian forces “will attack any F-16 base they can find.”
Rajan Menon, a senior researcher at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, said Russia is targeting advanced weapons coming from the West.
“I think they are convinced that the more Western weapons Ukraine has in whatever form, the stronger its army will become,” he said.
Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at Britain’s Royal Aeronautical Society, said the Russian military is likely convinced the F-16s “will shift the balance slightly in our favor.”
He said that once they arrive, Russian aircraft will likely have to be more cautious over Ukrainian territory, meaning that efforts to limit the effects of the fighter jets now pose a tempting prospect for Russia.
Ukraine has steps it can take
It is unclear what the potential impact of Russia’s efforts will be and whether the country will damage or destroy more air bases.
F-16s require long, flat runways and protective hangars.
Matthew Savill, director of military science at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, said The answer from the Ukrainian perspective is clear: more air defenses.
Ukraine has repeatedly asked for more air defense from its allies, to better stop Russian drone and missile attacks.
Ukraine also says that it building underground storage facilities and bunkers on its bases in preparation for the F-16sand the fighter jets will be spread across several bases, making them more difficult for Russia to detect.
A Ukrainian Air Force official also said: said in June that Ukraine would store some of its F-16s abroad so that Russia cannot attack them.
It’s hard to shut down airports
Robinson said destroying air bases is no easy task.
“Is it very, very difficult to completely close an air base?” he asked, “especially when you consider that they can be repaired.”
To keep one out of action, he said, you have to strike again and again. That would be especially difficult if Ukraine deploys more air defenses to protect bases where it keeps its F-16s.
Still, it would be a huge practical and symbolic blow to Ukraine if Ukraine’s F-16s were destroyed shortly after arrival, or could no longer be deployed because their airfields had been destroyed.
Clarke said the previous attacks on Russian air bases pointed to Ukraine’s “incompetence” but said the “spare edge” was that it was a good lesson, one that had already been learned before the F-16s arrived.
F-16s expected to help Ukraine
The F-16s are not expected to be a game changer for Ukraine, but analysts say they could strengthen the fight against Russia.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week that the F-16s would enable Ukraine to “effectively defend itself”.
The F-16s will not only serve as backup aircraft for the planes Ukraine has lost so far, but are also expected to serve as a line of defense against Russian drone and missile attacks.
They can also strike Russian weapons and troops, but experts say Ukraine lacks the commitment to use them in such an offensive role. It would be politically damaging to lose one, since so few strikes have been conducted.
Robinson previously told BI that the F-16s would “make the Russian pilots out there a little more cautious, a little more careful about what they encounter.”
Read the original article at Business insider