SRINAGAR, India, Sep 26 (IPS) – Nearly 60 percent of Kashmir’s agriculture relies on rainwater for irrigation, but this year the rains have been poor and the heat intense. How can farmers survive in the hottest and driest seasons on record? Abdul Hameed Sheikh sowed his crop and worked tirelessly in his paddy field for days.
The 52-year-old farmer, from the Budgam area of central Kashmir, irrigated his 3-acre plot religiously to keep the soil well-hydrated. He waited for the rains, but days passed and they did not come.
What did happen was that it was scorching hot: temperatures rose like never before.
Every morning, Sheikh walked across his rice field, watching the saplings slowly but surely turn into dry, dead twigs. As the days passed, he noticed another worrying trend. The land had developed cracks, creating dust as he walked along it.
“It was at that point that I was sure that the harvest would not be as expected. The year’s hard work is going to waste and I am completely helpless in such a scenario. This is quite worrying,” Sheikh told IPS.
This farmer was not alone in his concerns. People in this agricultural district in the Himalayan region complained of extreme heat waves never before seen in Kashmir’s living memory.
“Temperatures here even reached 40°C. In previous years, it did not even exceed 32°C,” said Abdul Salaam Malik, a farmer from Shopian in south Kashmir.
The persistent dry weather has stressed plants, said Prof Raihana Habib Kanth, Chief Scientist at the Faculty of Agriculture at the Sheri Kashmir University of Agriculture Science and Technology (SKUAST) in Kashmir. “The persistent dry weather has caused the tips of paddy crops to burn and the leaves of vegetable plants to dry out,” she told IPS, noting that it takes 3-5 litres of water to produce 1 kg of rice.
A recent study published in Science Direct, ‘Time series analysis of climate variability and trends in the Kashmir Himalayas,’ notes that the region is extremely sensitive to “even small perturbations in climate” and that the “changing pattern of rainfall could have serious environmental consequences that will have a major impact on food security and ecological sustainability of the region if the same trends continue.”
According to the meteorological officeThe regional capital, Srinagar, recorded a maximum temperature of 36.2 °C on July 28 this year, the hottest July since July 9, 1999, when the mercury had settled at 37 °C.
A 2019 study found that the average annual temperature in Kashmir has risen by 0.8˚C in 37 years (1980-2016), with recent summers breaking temperature records.
According to government data, the valley experienced its hottest August in 39 years on August 17, 2020, with temperatures reaching 35.7˚C. The following year, on July 18, 2021, Srinagar experienced its hottest July in eight years, with temperatures reaching 35˚C.
The summer of 2022 was even hotter, with temperatures exceeding 35˚C in some areas, and March that year was the hottest in 131 years. In September 2023, Srinagar recorded its hottest September day in 53 years at 34.2˚C.
This warming trend continued until 2024, marked by an unusually dry and warm winter. January 2024 was one of the driest and warmest in the past 43 years, according to meteorological reports. On May 23, Srinagar recorded the highest temperature in May in at least a decade.
It has long been known that the Himalayan region is warming faster than the global average. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) noted in his first comprehensive report on the region, published in 2019, that even if global warming is limited to 1.5˚C, the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) could experience warming of at least 0.3˚C above this threshold.
A study published in 2020 in Research Gate, ’21st Century-end Climate Scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India using Ensemble Climate Models’ predicted that annual temperatures in Kashmir could rise by 4-7˚C by the end of the century, depending on future emissions.
The research showed that urbanization in Srinagar and other mountain settlements exacerbate the heat, broader climate changes remain the main driver of rising temperatures.
Jasia Bashir, a researcher at the University of Kashmir’s Centre of Excellence for Glacial Studies, said Dialogue Earth: “Urban areas experience increased heat due to dense construction and reduced vegetation, but the entire region, including rural areas, experiences the general warming trend.”
Four-fifths of Kashmir’s population is directly dependent on agriculture. The heatwave has devastated farmers, including saffron farmers.
Mohammad Ashraf Mir from the Pampore region of Kashmir shares his dilemma, stressing that declining rainfall and rising temperatures are causing saffron farmers, including himself, to give up farming for good.
“The irrigation facilities are nowhere. The land is parched to the core. We have invested a lot in this crop and what we are getting in return is an insurmountable dilemma. The time is coming when we have to give up this farming and do something else for a living,” Mir told IPS.
According to government data, about 60 percent of Kashmir’s agriculture relies on rainwater for irrigation. However, in recent years, the Kashmir Valley has seen one of its driest seasons on record. The Meteorological Department reports that the region’s mountain ranges have received only 172 mm of snow in the past three years, a significant drop from the average of 622 mm.
According to government officials in the region, one in every 100 irrigation systems has been affected by the dry weather. Irrigation and Flood Control (I&FC) department. The water level of the Jhelum River has dropped as a result. According to them, the total water capacity of the Jhelum River has dropped by 30 percent.
And what about the future?
According to a detailed report prepared by Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) Released in 2023, the two biggest issues facing Kashmir in the coming decades are water stress and biodiversity loss caused by climate change. It says the region’s fisheries, forests, wildlife, species diversity and water resources are all severely threatened by climate change. Twenty percent of the region’s recognized biodiversity is supported by Jammu and Kashmir’s numerous wetlands, which are being adversely affected.
Other farmers suffering from the heat are apple growers from Kashmir.
Several apple growers told IPS that the lack of rainfall and heat waves are disrupting apple production and will lead to heavy losses for those involved in the apple business.
Fayaz Ahmad Malik, chairman of the North Kashmir Apple Growers Association, calls the situation “alarming”.
He explains that the ongoing heat wave not only hampers fruit growth, but also increases the risk of pests and insect infestations.
“Dry weather can lead to an increase in pest populations, which poses a major threat to our apple orchards. The lack of sufficient moisture affects the development of fruits and makes the orchards more susceptible to various diseases,” Malik said.
Agricultural experts stress the importance of timely irrigation and effective water management to counter the negative effects of the drought.
“Under these circumstances, it is crucial for farmers to manage orchard irrigation. Farmers should prioritize the construction of boreholes in their orchards to ensure adequate water supply,” they advised.
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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service