BANGKOK, Thailand, July 15 (IPS) – Scientific assessments show that the Third Pole (TP), comprising Asia’s vast glacier-fed mountains, is warming at an alarming rate of more than 0.3ºC per decade, outpacing the global average.
The TP hosts the largest ice mass outside the polar region, covering the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding mountain ranges: Pamir-Hindu Kush, Hengduan, Tienshan, Qilian and the Himalayas. Rapid changes in the cryosphere and melting of glaciers have a significant impact on ecosystems in the mountains and downstream areas.
As the water tower of Asia, the TP is vital to socio-economic stability through its freshwater resources. Warming has led to significant variations in lakes, inland water bodies and discharges to river basins. In addition, glacial disasters such as ice break-up and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have become more frequent and dangerous in recent years.
Emerging risk hotspots for the third pole
Although the risks posed by warming vary considerably across the TP’s geographic regions, glacier melting is accelerating. In the Himalayas, melting is more intense, leading to the emergence of multi-hazard hotspots.
Recent research shows that the The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) glaciers disappeared 65 percent faster between 2011 and 2020 than in the previous decade.
Future scenarios predict that glaciers in the HKH could lose up to 1,000 tonnes of area. by the end of the century to 80 percent of their current volumewith snow cover expected to decrease by a quarter under high emission scenarios.
This could drastically reduce freshwater supplies to major Asian rivers, including the Yangtze, Indus, Ganges, Amu Darya and Helmand. The reduced extent of frozen ground (permafrost) will lead to more landslides and problems for high-altitude infrastructure.
The changes observed so far in the Asian high mountain cryosphere indicate serious consequences for human life and nature. A recent example is a cloudburst over Lake Lhonak in North Sikkim, which caused a devastating GLOF in the Teesta River Basin.
This event resulted in loss of life, the destruction of the 1,200 MW Urja Hydroelectric Chungthang Dam and extensive damage downstream, illustrating how disaster risks can accumulate and multiply in the vulnerable mountainous context of the Himalaya.
GLOFs threaten mountain communities in Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan; from the Himalayas to the Caucasus, the Pamirs, the Hindu Kush-Karakoram and the Tian Shan mountain ranges.
Although warming of Asian glaciers is already visible, it will have devastating consequences for water and food security, energy resources, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in Asia. Many of these impacts will be beyond the bounds of adaptation.
Science-led TP regional cooperation mechanisms for weather and climate services
Given the transboundary nature of the climate threats facing Asian glaciers, stronger regional cooperation and knowledge sharing is required to understand the changing risk landscape and develop the risk reduction capabilities of countries in the different geographic areas of the TP.
The WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums and Regional Climate Centres embed a unique regional and subregional cooperation architecture. Under this modality, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the TP region have the Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC Network) to facilitate collaboration.
To capture the specificities of the risk landscape in TP geographies, the TPRCC network consists of three geographical nodes, with thematic responsibilities for mandatory functions for the entire region. While China leads the Northern and Eastern nodes, India and Pakistan are the Southern and Western nodes of the TP. The Beijing Climate Centre provides the overall coordination. ESCAP, together with ICIMOD, TPE, GCW, GEWEX and MRI, are contributing partners of the TPRCC network.
In early June, the TPRCC Network published its first-ever seasonal outlook for the June–September 2024 summer season for a high-mountain TP region. It highlights that surface temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the TP region, particularly over the Karakoram.
The southwestern and northwestern parts are likely to experience normal to above normal surface air temperatures. Precipitation is likely to be near or above climatological normal over most parts of the TP region, but is likely to be below normal over the western and southeastern parts of the TP region.
Impact forecasting with teleconnection approach in the TP
Weather forecasting depends on the interconnectedness of atmospheric and oceanic conditions around the world, allowing predictions to be made weeks to months in advance. Teleconnections refer to significant connections between weather phenomena in distant locations, often with climate patterns spanning thousands of kilometers.
The TP is characterized by glacier hazards with their potential exposure, vulnerability and impact zones that are thousands of kilometers away across the various nodes. Impact assessment should be based on understanding the teleconnections of glaciers and their potential impact zones.
With the understanding of these unique teleconnections in the TP, ESCAP endeavors to translate the seasonal outlook into terms of impact scenarios that highlight potentially at-risk communities, sectors and systems of the TP region. ESCAP has developed an impact-based forecasting automation tool to guide risk-informed decision-making and fill knowledge gaps.
Support for height adjustment
Several initiatives are aimed at accelerating adaptation actions in the mountains, including the multi-country initiative such as the Adjustment at heightThese initiatives enhance resilience and adaptive capacity by improving and transferring knowledge through science-policy platforms, thereby informing decision-making in national, regional and global policy processes.
Adaptation and resilience in the context of the Third Pole depend on understanding glacier dynamics and their impacts on water and ecosystems. The TRCC Network is a key initiative to support adaptation at altitude.
Sanjay Srivastava is head of ESCAP’s Disaster Risk Reduction Division; Soomi Hong is Associate Economic Affairs Officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP; Shashwat-avi is an advisor to the Disaster Risk Reduction department at ESCAP.
The article is also co-authored by Naina Tanwar, Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP and Akshaya Kumar, Intern, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP
IPS UN Office
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