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Analysts suspect that Pakistan will equip its JF-17 fighter jets with nuclear missiles.
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The suspicion that the JF-17 might have nuclear missiles was speculative until a photo recently emerged.
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India and Pakistan have fought four wars and have clashed repeatedly on the border.
The nuclear balance of terror between America and Russia, and now America and China, raises the most concern about atomic apocalypse. But the simmering conflict between India and Pakistan — both nuclear powers — is no less dangerous.
There are now indications that Pakistan is arming its military. JF-17 fighters with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The JF-17s will replace older French Mirage jets that Pakistan has deployed for nuclear strike missions, the Federation of American Scientists.
“These developments, combined with increased tensions in the region, have raised concerns about an accelerating arms race and new risks of escalation of a potential conflict between India and Pakistan, especially as India also increases the size and capability of its nuclear arsenal,” wrote FAS analyst Eliana Johns.
Not surprisingly, given Pakistan’s secrecy about its nuclear program, the evidence for JF-17s carrying nuclear weapons is somewhat circumstantial. Pakistan’s current nuclear strike aircraft are the 1960s-era Mirage V, armed with nuclear bombs, and the Mirage III, which has been test-fired with the Ra’ad cruise missile, which can be armed with either nuclear or conventional warheads. And a JF-17 in the air was recently photographed carrying what appears to be a Ra’ad missile.
However, the Pakistan Air Force has at least 130 examples of the JF-17 Thunder type, a joint project between Pakistan and China that created a fighter jet that is equal to the American F-16 (Pakistan also has 75 F-16s). The aircraft, designated FC-1 Xiaolong (“Fierce Dragon”) in Chinese service, first flew in 2003.
Suspicions that the JF-17 would be armed with Ra’ad missiles were largely speculative until a photo recently surfaced. “During rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade (which was later cancelled), an image surfaced of a JF-17 Thunder Block II carrying what was reportedly a Ra’ad ALCM,” FAS reported. “Notably, this was the first time such a configuration had been seen in public.”
The Federation of American Scientists “was able to purchase the original image” and compared the Ra’ad mounted on the JF-17 with earlier images. One question was which version of the Ra’ad was mounted on the JF-17. The Council I (also known as the Hatf-8) is a subsonic air-launched cruise missile with an estimated range of over 200 miles, similar to other models such as Europe’s Storm Shadow, according to the CSIS Missile Threat defense site. The newer Ra’ad II reportedly has a range of nearly 400 miles. Pakistan is also developing the Taimoor, an anti-ship version of the Ra’ad.
Using tools such as Photoshop Vanishing Point to analyze the images, FAS concluded that JF-17 was armed with the older Ra’ad I. If true, this would mean that numerous targets in western and northern India would be within range of nuclear or conventional cruise missiles.
“There are several air bases in Pakistan, located near the border,” Johns told Business Insider. “The planes could take off and fly to dispersal bases within Pakistan’s borders to get closer to potential targets in India, 350 to 600 kilometers away, if desired.”
There is still much uncertainty surrounding the exact capabilities of the Ra’ad. “When you look at the differences between the Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II missiles, it raises a number of questions,” FAS noted. “How could Pakistan nearly double the range of the Ra’ad from an estimated 350 kilometers to 550 kilometers and then to 600 kilometers for the latest version without significantly changing the size of the missile to accommodate more fuel? The answer could be that the Ra’ad-II engine design is more efficient, the structural components are made of lighter materials, or the payload has been reduced.”
So for now, Pakistan’s air defense cruise missile capability will remain a mystery. It is “unclear whether any of the Ra’ad systems have been deployed, but this may only be a matter of when rather than if,” FAS said. “Once deployed, it remains to be seen whether Pakistan will also retain a nuclear gravity bomb capability for its aircraft or will only switch to stand-off cruise missiles.”
And while the JF-17 is a joint Sino-Pakistani aircraft, Johns doubts that China will try to stop Pakistan from converting it into a nuclear-capable strike aircraft. “China and Pakistan have had a long-standing economic and technical partnership,” Johns said. “It is believed that Pakistan received a blueprint for its first nuclear device from China. The JF-17s were not built for a nuclear mission in the Chinese air force. Nevertheless, Pakistan appears to be preparing for this eventuality, as the Mirage III and V aircraft are outdated.”
Pakistan’s main delivery system for its estimated 170 nuclear weapons ballistic missiles will continue to exist, including at least six models of road-mobile missiles. But extending the range of Pakistan’s air power will only increase the likelihood of nuclear war. Both Pakistan and India are already developing multiple-warhead, or MIRV, versions of their ballistic missiles, and Pakistan is working on short-range, dual-purpose ballistic missiles. India and Pakistan have fought four wars — and numerous border conflicts — since the Indian subcontinent was partitioned in 1947. In 2019, Pakistan veiled nuclear threats after Indian planes bombed militant bases in Kashmir, Pakistan.
“This context raises an even greater need for transparency and understanding about the quality and intentions behind states’ nuclear programs, to avoid misrepresentations and misunderstandings,” Johns concluded.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter And LinkedIn.
Read the original article at Business insider
