(Bloomberg) — It’s hard to ignore the similarities between Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the young congressman he is backing in the race to lead the country’s largest city.
Most read from Bloomberg
With a thick beard, roots in progressive social movements and a booming, gravelly voice that he usually directs at Brazil’s ruling elite, Guilherme Boulos often seems like a modern version of the 78-year-old leftist leader now in the middle of his third term. president. They even cheer for the same football team.
But in a heated mayoral battle in Sao Paulo that could cement his status as Lula’s most likely successor, Boulos is now navigating a reality that has complicated the Brazilian left’s previous search for an heir: emulating Lula on the stump, it turns out, is much easier than a repeat of his striking political success – especially among the poor.
Boulos, 42, is in a dead heat with incumbent Ricardo Nunes and right-wing rebel Pablo Marcal ahead of a first-round vote in the town of Lula, which was won by seven points two years ago. With no one likely to win a majority, the top two are almost certainly heading for a second round later this month.
There’s more at stake than just oversight of the city’s $150 billion economy and nearly 12 million residents: The race has also become a proxy battle between Lula and right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the next presidential election in 2026.
Lula has thrown his support behind Boulos, a militant anti-poverty activist who has honed his political voice as leader of Brazil’s Homeless Workers Movement, and who has made the massive income inequality plaguing Latin America’s financial capital central to his campaign .
“What we have today is a humanitarian crisis,” Boulos said in an interview, pointing to estimates that the number of homeless people in Sao Paulo exceeds 80,000. “This shouldn’t be a matter of left or right. It is a matter of humanity and human sensitivity.”
Struggle with the poor
The message attempts to strike the tone that Lula has long been singing in an effort to allay the fears that his left-wing policy prescriptions are raising among many investors and moderate voters: that it is possible to save the lives of Brazil’s poorest and most marginalized people. improve “without taking anything from anyone.” ”, said Boulos.
“What I am advocating is reducing social inequality and no one should feel threatened by this,” he added. “Fighting inequality is good for everyone.”
That has managed to win over a significant portion of Sao Paulo’s richest residents, among whom Boulos has a narrow lead, according to a Datafolha poll published on Thursday. What it hasn’t done, despite its focus on poverty and Lula’s support, is lock down the poor voters who typically form the backbone of the president’s support.
Boulos has made gains in recent weeks but is still six points behind Nunes among Sao Paulo’s lowest-income voters, the poll shows.
It’s not a new problem. Unlike Lula, a former trade unionist who grew up poor with little formal education, he is the son of two doctors and a graduate of one of the country’s most prestigious public universities. During his campaign, he often talks about his decision to give up the comforts of the middle class at the age of 18 to live among the homeless, characterizing his advocacy as a lifelong passion.
“Since I was a child, I have never accepted people being thrown out onto the streets,” he said.
But he has long faced claims from skeptical opponents and observers that he is more popular among a growing class of educated, socially progressive Sao Paulo residents than among the poor.
Boulos exceeded expectations during his first mayoral campaign four years ago and advanced to a runoff. But he lost low-income neighborhoods to the city’s northern suburbs, which Lula would conquer two years later. Even in the poorer neighborhoods he won, Boulos posted significantly smaller margins than Lula later amassed.
He improved performance in 2022, winning more votes than any other congressional candidate in Sao Paulo. And Lula, who made three failed attempts to become president before winning in 2002, has indicated he sees potential for Boulos to follow a similar path.
He initially noted Boulos, who pushed back on the idea that he is a possible heir to Lula when the activist led an anti-government protest during his first term. Hours before he went to prison in 2018 on a corruption conviction that was later overturned, Lula praised Boulos for organizing demonstrations in his support, telling him he had a “bright future” ahead of him.
“Lula looks at Boulos and sees herself only forty years younger,” said Thomas Traumann, political analyst and former press secretary to left-wing President Dilma Rousseff.
‘A strong mayor’
The president has deployed the machinery of his left-wing Workers’ Party to boost Boulos in Sao Paulo. Marta Suplicy, a Workers’ Party veteran whose social programs made her popular in the city’s poorest corners during her mayoralty from 2001 to 2005, joined as his running mate. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, another former mayor of Sao Paulo, has also campaigned with him.
Poverty remains his primary focus: Boulos wants to use public financing and tax incentives to boost employment, expand economic opportunity and expand access to doctors and medical care in the city’s underserved suburbs. He argues that right-wing candidates do not have the interests of poor voters in mind.
“Look at the content of his policies, his proposals and his admirers,” Boulos said. “It’s a pro-billionaire far right.”
Boulos also expanded his message to include the persistently high crime rates plaguing Sao Paulo, which are voters’ main concern ahead of the elections: “What Sao Paulo needs is a strong mayor who will do what has not been done yet,” he said. in a recent TV ad, promising to double the number of local law enforcement officers.
Safety is a priority for voters like Maria Souza, a 60-year-old who recently attended a Boulos campaign rally from her shop in Heliopolis, a favela in the southern part of the city. She is a long-time Lula supporter and is leaning toward voting for Boulos on Sunday. Concerns about whether he will prioritize the city’s crime problems have made her hesitant.
“You can’t turn on the news without hearing horrible stories, like people being murdered on cell phones,” she said. “I don’t leave home at night anymore.”
–With help from Gabriel Diniz Tavares and Daniel Carvalho.
Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 BloombergLP