The news
Ukraine and Russia appear to have made progress in their offensive attacks on each other’s territory over the weekend and Monday.
Moscow claimed that Kiev had caused damage a third major Russian bridge On Monday, part of the country’s lightning-fast advance in the Kursk region, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy said was designed to create a “buffer zone” against further Russian aggression. Moscow, meanwhile, moved closer to securing a Ukrainian city, a major step toward securing the entire Donetsk region which it illegally annexed, but parts of which are still in the hands of Kiev’s troops.
SIGNALS
Kiev undermines Russia’s sense of impenetrability – Moscow begins to respond
The surprise invasion of Ukraine threw the Kremlin propagandists into a crisis: “It contradicts everything they have told themselves population about their so-called powerful army and how well they are protected,” the founder of Russia Media Monitor told the Kyiv Independent. The attack amounted to a “personal humiliation“to Putin, and ‘the myth’ of his invincibility dented,” wrote The Guardian’s foreign correspondent. Moscow is slowly intensification of the response After that initial moment of surprise, Ukraine is now losing more troops on the ground, The Economist reports.
Creating ‘buffer zones’ cannot turn the war in Kiev’s favor
Zelenskyy’s description of the seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” appropriates Moscow own language for Ukrainian territory it has occupied, noted former Australian general Mick Ryan. Ukraine will likely make a partial withdrawal at some point, holding on to the “zone” as a future bargaining chip, Ryan added. But while “stunning and clever,” Kiev’s incursion will not ultimately change Putin’s calculations and may make him even more determined to subdue Ukraine. In wars of attrition, the The ratio of casualties to exchange is more important than the territory conqueredand the invasion of Ukraine, which required the relocation of key combat units from the front lines, threatens to tip that balance in Russia’s favor, political scientist John Measheimer argued in Responsible Statecraft.
International pressure may be increasing
Ukraine’s push toward Russia comes as cracks may be beginning to appear in support for Kiev: European defense stocks fell Monday after a German newspaper reported that the country’s finance minister had ordered his colleagues veto new military aid for Ukraine amid budgetary constraints (a report that dismissed Ukraine as “manipulation”). Meanwhile, Zelenskyy criticized the US, UK and France for failure to accelerate arms deliveries over the weekend, Politico reported. On Friday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Zelenskyy in Kiev — a month after he visited Moscow — where he is expected to call for an end to the conflict. The meeting is expected to be a “crucial moment in the search for a peaceful solution“to end the war,” Eurasia Review noted.
