Regular power cuts had become a regular feature of South African life, adding to the sense that the country was heading in the wrong direction. Since March, however, the power supply has been uninterrupted, leaving people wondering what has changed.
It is a crisp winter day in Johannesburg. A bright blue sky shines over the bustling town of Alexandra, or Alex as it is better known here in South Africa.
Sizeka Rashamosa stands in her restaurant, a stream of people swirling around her, some bringing crates of beer, another grilling meat on a hot plate. A group of young men sit at a sunlit table.
“I can’t talk,” she says, “I’m busy.”
It’s a very different story from when we first met in March last year, at the height of South Africa’s energy crisis and frequent blackouts, the official term for planned power outages.
At the time, Ms. Rashamosa had very little electricity and only one customer, a reflection of the broader impact on the economy.
“Power is everything,” she said then. “I am very stressed. We have no money because of the electricity, you see it is dark. I don’t think I will survive in my business. We have to close after 25 years. It is terrible.”
But now that she finally has a few minutes to talk, things are more positive.
“The load shedding is much better now,” she says. “You see, there’s electricity. And now I’m busy. I’m staying open, no plans to close, not anymore.”
It is a remarkable turnaround.
The blackouts began in 2007 and reached a low point last year, often lasting more than half a day.
This year, it was expected to be worse. But now there has been no load shedding for more than four months – since 5 a.m. on March 26, to be exact – the longest outage in more than four years.
How did the turnaround come about and will power outages return?
This is largely due to a series of programmes by state energy supplier Eskom and the government over the past two years.
In July 2022, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the Energy Action Plan and in February of the same year, he declared a national state of emergency due to the electricity crisis.
Shortly afterwards, the position of Minister of Electricity was created by appointing Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.
And then Eskom launched the two-year Generation Operational Recovery Plan, the main objective of which was to increase the amount of power – known as the “Energy Availability Factor” (EAF) – to 70% of the grid’s potential.
At the same time, Eskom has renewed its leadership, which is seen by most as a key factor.
For years, the company was plagued by corruption under former President Jacob Zuma, known as “state capture,” when it was the victim of theft and sabotage, with a former CEO even claiming to have been poisoned.
“If you look at it now, it’s a good mix. You have technical people, you have financial people, you have people with skills, in turns,” says energy analyst Ruse Moleshe.
“Our 40,000 employees are more committed and motivated because the power outage discouraged us all and morale was very low,” said Daphne Mokwena, Eskom’s national spokesperson.
Another major step last year was a R254 billion (US$14 billion; £10.9 billion) debt restructuring package from the Department of Finance to plug Eskom’s financial hole.
This has significantly reduced the number of unplanned power outages at Eskom’s power stations caused by unit failures.
This meant that a programme of planned maintenance could be carried out.
This has led to increased energy capacity, which on July 23 reached 35,000 MW, the highest level in six years.
“There’s a whole raft of these big projects,” said energy expert Chris Yelland, referring to plans that have been in place since July 2022.
“It’s like having a pipe and you put marbles in one end, and you keep putting them in because it takes a long time, and eventually the marbles start popping out.”
Then there are the external factors.
“The first thing you can say is that the overall demand for electricity (from Eskom) by the South African economy as a country has been declining for a decade,” Mr Yelland said.
This is due to two factors: rising energy bills and the spread of alternative energy sources.
“Every year we have an electricity price increase from Eskom that is many times higher than inflation, so the real price of electricity is going up and it has been going up for years,” Mr Yelland said.
“And there has been a notable increase in solar and battery energy storage systems across all sectors, from individual residential applications to commercial, industrial mining and agriculture.”
The slow economic growth has also led to less upward pressure on electricity demand.
Minister Ramokgopa holds regular press conferences in the capital Pretoria, by far the most in South Africa’s government, and regularly visits Eskom power stations.
He was generally optimistic during his final briefing and was particularly proud of the fact that so much had been achieved in winter, the time of year when demand for electricity is highest.
But could all this have happened much sooner?
“I think we could have handled this situation better if we were told much earlier: ‘We are going to run out of capacity so we need to invest in new generation capacity,’” Mr Ramokgopa told the BBC.
“We thought the market would solve that problem, but in fact the state has to take the lead. We have not created conditions in which the market could respond appropriately.”
He also admits that the power outage played a role in the African National Congress’ (ANC) disastrous election result in May, when its vote share fell below 50% for the first time.
“Our core base was not convinced that the government is capable and willing to solve the problem. We have paid the price, we are here, the government of national unity is committed to that and to solving the South African problem. I am confident that we will do well.”
Will the changes mean that power cuts will be a thing of the past?
“It is too early to claim victory,” President Ramaphosa said in a speech last month.
“Our electricity system is still vulnerable and we cannot yet rule out that challenges will arise in the future.”
There are still occasional power outages – so-called ‘load reduction’ – where Eskom switches off power in areas with high power consumption to prevent damage to local infrastructure, such as transformers, which would in turn lead to longer power outages.
Eskom blames this mainly on illegal connections and overcrowding of properties – what it and the government call ‘backyard dwellers’.
According to the government, 5% of South African households will be affected by the tax reduction.
But it all seems really positive.
“We are not there yet, but the chances of us going back to power cuts are very slim if we continue doing what we are doing now,” says Daphne Mokwena.
Back in Alex, Mrs. Rashamosa prepares for a busy weekend, one she could not have imagined this time last year.
“Life is much better now,” she says, then runs to the back of her restaurant.
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