Japan's Leadership Race Field Grows To Four As Hayashi Declares

(Bloomberg) — Japan’s top government spokesman said he would pursue “people-friendly policies” if he becomes national leader, bringing to four the number of candidates in this month’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership election.

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Yoshimasa Hayashi, trailing the election frontrunners in popularity ratings, said Tuesday he will run for the Sept. 27 poll. The LDP leader is virtually certain to become prime minister because of the party’s dominance in parliament.

At least two lawmakers are expected to formally announce their intention to run later this week, with the field of candidates expected to be the largest in recent years by the time the official campaign begins on September 12.

Hayashi’s policy views are generally in line with those of current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who surprised many by saying in August that he would not run for reelection, ending his term after nearly three years as prime minister. At his press conference, Hayashi said he supported fiscal spending that would support economic growth and the use of nuclear power to ensure sufficient energy and combat emissions.

Below are some candidates who could replace Kishida.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63

Hayashi comes from the ruling party’s dove-like wing and is a trusted lieutenant of Kishida. He previously ran unsuccessfully in the LDP leadership race in 2012 and is seen by many political analysts as an outsider in this year’s election. Hayashi studied at Harvard University and spent most of the Kishida administration as foreign minister.

Key policies:

Economy: Supports fiscal spending, but says it is important to maintain confidence in Japanese government bonds
Foreign Policy: Rejects criticism that he is pro-China and says he is someone who prioritizes dialogue, including with China
Energy: For restarting nuclear power plants once their safety has been confirmed

Shinjiro Koizumi, 43

The son of a former prime minister, Shinjiro Koizumi attracted attention in September 2023 when he went surfing off the coast of Fukushima to ease safety concerns following the release of treated wastewater from the nearby devastated nuclear plant. A former environment minister and advocate of renewable energy, Koizumi made headlines when he became the first sitting minister to take paternity leave. Koizumi has ranked first or second in many polls asking voters who they would like to see become prime minister.

Key policy measures

Energy: In a recent podcast on Radio Nikkei, he said there won’t be enough electricity to power Japan’s economy if nuclear power plants don’t work
Digital: In November, he set up a cross-party group to advocate for the introduction of ride-sharing apps to help solve the shortage of taxi drivers

Shigeru Ishiba, 67

Ishiba, a former defense minister, has scored high in voter popularity surveys. In his last four attempts at the top job, he has struggled to win enough support from fellow lawmakers to win the leadership race. In recent weeks, Ishiba has voiced support for normalizing the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.

Key policies:

Monetary: Supported the BOJ’s July 31 decision to raise interest rates and criticized the government’s extraordinary long-term easing policy
Economic: Advocates policies that include reviving domestic demand to boost growth, rather than relying on foreign trade.
Abroad: Is a strong supporter of democracy in Taiwan and builds partnerships in the region as a deterrent against countries like China.

Sanae Takaichi, 63

Takaichi, a former heavy metal drummer turned hardline conservative, has cited British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration. Takaichi has been a front-runner in recent opinion polls and is a frequent visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, seen by Japan’s neighbors as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism. Takaichi currently serves as minister for economic security.

Key policies:

Monetary: Support for ultra-loose monetary policy of former PM Abe
Energy: For the LDP’s 2021 leadership race, she supported the use of nuclear energy, particularly next-generation technologies such as small modular reactors

Kono Taro, 61

Kono, a former foreign and defense minister with a pugnacious style, lost to Kishida in the last party election for president due to a lack of support from his parliamentary colleagues. Kono has been in the middle of the pack in recent opinion polls. Kono has softened his opposition to nuclear power in recent years. He also asks that his name be written in the Japanese style, with the family name first.

Key policies:

Monetary: Supports BOJ policy normalization if inflation remains in line with expectations. Has also said weak yen is a problem for Japan
Fiscal: Says fiscal consolidation a priority after big stimulus spending during pandemic
Digital: He called for an end to outdated practices such as the use of name stamps

Takayuki Kobayashi, 49

Kobayashi is seen as part of the younger generation of potential leaders. It is a long road to take over in 2024, but by running now he is signaling to LDP members and voters that he has his sights set on eventually becoming prime minister.

Key policies:

Monetary: Talked about the difficulties of absorbing bonds domestically and the need to seek foreign investors
Economy: Has said that the “economy takes priority over finance,” indicating that spending for growth is important.
Trade: There is a clear need for Japan to strengthen its supply chain across all sectors, including those for critical minerals such as lithium and cobalt needed in energy transition technologies

Toshimitsu Motegi, 68

Motegi, a party heavyweight who recently said the BOJ should signal more clearly its intention to normalize monetary policy, is currently secretary-general of the LDP. A former foreign minister, he is also a Harvard graduate and has a tough image within the party. Motegi is not among the leaders in most opinion polls.

Key policies:

Monetary: Said the BOJ should signal more clearly its intention to normalize monetary policy to support the yen as the weak currency could push up prices
Fiscal: As Party Secretary-General, Motegi is a proponent of current fiscal policy and is likely to support the status quo. He has advocated returning some of Japan’s increased tax revenues to the people through direct tax cuts.
Foreign Affairs: As foreign minister, Motegi demonstrated his support for peace in the Taiwan Strait, while also planning for contingencies

Katsunobu Kato, 68

The former health minister is the type of person who could emerge as a compromise candidate. The seven-term lawmaker helped guide Japan through the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country fared better than most of its G7 peers. Kato has not ruffled many feathers in the ruling party, which could work to his advantage, while he has played a key role under the last three prime ministers.

Key policies:

Monetary policy: In an interview with Bloomberg, he said Japan should continue to strive for a world in which interest rates and prices continue to move
Economic policy: aims for sustainable growth by making large investments to increase productivity
Fiscal Policy: Maintains a balanced approach to managing financial health and pursuing growth

Yoko Kamikawa, 71

Kamikawa is a Harvard graduate who ran her own consulting firm before entering politics. She is known for her efforts to promote female candidates, an uphill battle considering only 12% of LDP lawmakers are women.

Main policies:

Fiscal: She supported active fiscal spending ahead of the last LDP elections in 2021 and has since warned of the need for fiscal discipline
Abroad: Has supported trilateral security cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the US and has pushed for global improvements in human rights.

Other names mentioned as possible candidates include lawmaker Seiko Noda, who previously failed in her bid to become the country’s first female prime minister, and Ken Saito, the minister of economy, trade and industry.

–With assistance from Isabel Reynolds, Yuki Hagiwara, and Jon Herskovitz.

(Updates with Hayashi’s announcement of his candidacy)