(Bloomberg) — Shigeru Ishiba will be confirmed as Japan’s new prime minister on Tuesday, putting the burden of governing the nation on the shoulders of a political idealist who has spent much of his long career criticizing from the sidelines .
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By announcing plans for national elections on October 27 on Monday, Ishiba has already signaled his willingness to act decisively in an effort to turn public support into a mandate to govern. It could also help him exert his authority over the Liberal Democratic Party and the right-wing party lawmakers who regularly oppose him.
Unrest within the LDP following a series of scandals and the sidelining of senior power brokers could ultimately pose an internal challenge for Ishiba, and voters’ frustration over persistent inflation and the LDP’s past misdeeds could still lead to setbacks in leading the ballot box.
For the time being, Ishiba is counting on a dramatic come-from-behind victory in the LDP leadership elections. He has installed heavyweights in senior positions in the party to try to ensure he has a solid power base, and he has given rising LDP election rival Shinjiro Koizumi the job of running the party’s national election campaigns.
A poll conducted last weekend by the Mainichi newspaper showed that 52% of respondents were optimistic about the incoming Ishiba government, while 30% expressed pessimism.
Tuesday’s events will have none of the drama of the party elections. Just after lunch, the two houses of parliament will vote – starting with the more powerful lower house – on a motion to approve Ishiba as prime minister. Thanks to the LDP’s dominance in both houses, the process should be a formality.
He will also announce his cabinet line-up, although this is unlikely to result in any surprises after his choices were widely reported in the local press. Among his choices, Ishiba has given Katsunobu Kato, another rival in the LDP leadership contest, the key role of finance minister. Only two women will enter the cabinet, a fresh reminder of the low representation of women in Japanese politics and professional life.
Ishiba has indicated he will continue many of the economic policies of the outgoing Kishida government, and the retention of Yoshimasa Hayashi as the government’s top spokesman is a signal of continuity, said Rintaro Nishimura, a Japanese fellow at consultancy The Asia Group.
A challenge for Ishiba will be managing the LDP’s right-wing members after conservatives were excluded from cabinet and senior party leadership positions, Nishimura said. If he continues to antagonize them, “I’m afraid the conservatives will do everything they can to delay or weaken Ishiba’s policies,” Nishimura said.
Among Ishiba’s rivals are Sanae Takaichi, who surprisingly lost to Ishiba in a runoff in the LDP leadership election despite leading him in the first round of voting. Takayuki Kobayashi, the other major right-wing candidate in the LDP elections, also missed out on a cabinet position.
Ishiba is expected to hold his own press conference sometime in the evening on Tuesday after visiting Emperor Naruhito for a ceremony in which he will be formally confirmed as prime minister.
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