Mysteriously, holes have been found in the fences of military bases.
An alleged plot to assassinate Germany’s largest arms manufacturer.
Wiretaps of a high-ranking Luftwaffe telephone conversation.
These are not storylines from a 1960s spy novel, but real events in Germany this year.
Not all of these events can be definitively attributed to Moscow, but Germany is extra alert to possible Russian sabotage actions because of Berlin’s continued military support for Kiev.
As a fierce war rages between Russia and Ukraine, there are fears that Europe has entered a new Cold War.
“When we think of the Cold War, we often think of the 1970s, when the rules of the game were already set and accepted,” said Mark Galeotti, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and director of Mayak Intelligence.
“In a way we’re in the early Cold War – the 1950s and 1960s, so a much grittier time.”
But what does a resurgent Cold War look like for Europe’s largest economy and a country once divided by the Iron Curtain?
The biggest bombshell dropped last month when CNN reported that US officials had informed Berlin about an alleged Russian plot to assassinate the CEO of Germany’s largest arms company, Rheinmetall.
The Kremlin denied the report, but German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who has taken a hawkish stance compared to the more hesitant Chancellor Olaf Scholz, slammed Russia for “waging a hybrid war of aggression.”
I met Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger at a foundation stone laying ceremony for a new ammunition factory in February.
The 61-year-old is, to use a crude term, a real “somebody,” especially in a world where NATO countries are spending billions to supply Ukraine and bolster their own security.
His prominent position became clear when he stood next to Chancellor Scholz, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen as they dug spades into the ground in Lower Saxony.
If a plot to assassinate him had been successful, it would have sent shock waves through the West.
A security blunder that occurred not long after allowed spies to eavesdrop on a highly sensitive conversation between high-ranking German air force officials, which was later broadcast on Russian television.
It was a source of great embarrassment for Berlin, as a Luftwaffe brigadier general appeared to give spies access to the secure telephone conversation by dialing into an unsecured line.
This mega-blip, however isolated, led to accusations that Germany has long been a “weak link” in European counterintelligence, due to a fragmented, federalized system underpinned by a heavy emphasis on individual privacy.
Weeks later, two German-Russian citizens were arrested on suspicion of sabotaging U.S. military facilities in Bavaria. Annalena Baerbock called on the Russian ambassador to complain, announcing, “We will not allow Putin to bring his terror to Germany.”
Just last week, holes were found in the fences of water supplies to two military bases in North Rhine-Westphalia, raising concerns that someone was trying to contaminate the supplies.
Germany is not the only European country targeted by alleged acts of sabotage. The country also hosts many US military bases established after World War II.
Mark Galeotti believes that Moscow sees Germany as a large but “weak” power, making it an ideal pressure point.
The biggest act of sabotage to hit Germany in recent years was widely believed to be the blowing up of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia, in 2022.
Since then, there has been much speculation about who ordered the attack, but now a dramatic development is underway: Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor.
Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the “shoestring” operation was privately funded but directed from Ukraine.
Kiev dismissed the report as nonsense. While there was always skepticism that President Putin would order the destruction of his own pipeline, it does show that the murky world of espionage can be full of twists and turns.
Any incident of apparent sabotage cannot be immediately and with certainty attributed to Russia.
In France, it was not Russian agents but far-left activists who were accused of attacking the country’s high-speed rail network on the eve of the Olympic Games.
And Germany also has a long history of far-left militant attacks.
The fact that Ukrainian figures are now in the spotlight because of the explosions in Nord Stream has led to new criticism from well-known political corners in Germany about the government’s support for Kiev.
Co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, Alice Weidel, has called for a halt to “aid payments” to Kiev and for “attributing” the damage to Nord Stream to Ukraine.
The AfD enjoys a large following in the former communist east. Outside Berlin, there is a continued affection for Russia and dissatisfaction with the major parties that have dominated national politics since reunification.
While comparisons with the Cold War in European security are becoming increasingly apparent, the politics of that period have also been renewed in Germany in surprising and unexpected ways.
To improve safety, the German government is working on a new law that should increase the resilience of critical infrastructure.
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser says there must be “maximum protective measures in all areas.”
Companies in critical sectors such as energy, transportation and water must adhere to minimum safety standards, under the Kritis Umbrella Act.
It is the first federal law of its kind in Germany, but final approval has not yet been obtained despite increased tensions surrounding the war.
According to reports, Marder armored vehicles are being used in Germany in Ukraine’s surprise operation on Russian territory.
This would once again break a taboo in German foreign policy since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Add to that the controversial plans to station long-range missiles in Germany from 2026.
When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Chancellor Sholz promised a “Zeitenwende,” a turning point in national defense and security policy.
But both supporters and opponents of the government acknowledge that it will take time to reverse years of underinvestment in defense. And so will changing a mindset so deeply influenced by Germany’s dark past.
Given recent developments, the question is how long Berlin will continue to exist.
According to Mark Galeotti, it’s not just about rebuilding defenses, but also about improving cybersecurity and counterintelligence.
“Safety planning is not done over weeks or months, but over years.”
