If social media statistics were a solid predictor of voting intentions, France’s far-right leader Jordan Bardella would be a shot in the arm for the prime minister.
The 28-year-old, who is spearheading the anti-immigration National Rally (RN), beats current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal – at least on TikTok.
The RN was a big winner in this month’s European elections, the president said Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament and call early elections for June 30 and July 7.
Pollsters expect the RN to do well, but the big question is whether they will win an overall majority and control of the legislature in the European Union’s second-largest economy.
Bardella has said he will not take on the role of prime minister unless the party wins an outright majority.
The elections are played out in sometimes spicy vignettes on TikTok.
Attal, who is leading the campaign for Macron’s centrist Renaissance party and is only seven years older than Bardella, has taken direct aim at his rival.
“If you don’t need anything, call Jordan Bardella,” Attal said in a video filmed during the pre-election campaign, accusing Bardella’s camp of “absolute amateurism.”
Bardella, who often filmed pieces for the camera from his car, calmly warned about the dangers of misinformation in a close-up video on Thursday.
He repeatedly claims that his party is being misrepresented by the mainstream media.
But it remains to be seen whether this will influence the elections.
– ‘Codes of authenticity’ –
Experts say it may be foolish to tie social media popularity to voting.
“It is very difficult to measure the effect of social networks on election results,” says Marie Neihouser, a specialist in digital media and politics at the University of Toulouse.
Yet there is broad agreement that Bardella is succeeding where many politicians struggle.
“He is the only one who has incorporated the authenticity codes into his video content,” Tristan Boursier, a researcher at Paris Sciences Po University, told AFP.
In addition to more traditional campaign videos, Bardella often appears in candid scenes, drinking pastis, eating Haribo sweets before TV debates or preparing for an awkward encounter.
When he appeared on television, he said in one segment: “I always eat sweets or sugar. It makes me not hungry anymore, and then I am excited for two hours.”
The approach “makes him sympathetic, human and presents him as authentic,” Boursier said.
His team posts more often than his rivals, and with much better numbers.
Bardella’s warning about misinformation had been viewed more than a million times as of Friday afternoon, compared to 300,000 for Attal’s criticism of Bardella.
In total, Bardella has 1.7 million followers, with approximately 500,000 having been added since the beginning of June.
Attal has just over 300,000. Macron has 4.5 million, but did not post during the election campaign.
– ‘He’s funny’ –
The focus on TikTok helps shift the dynamic from policy to personalities, which is helpful for Bardella, who is one of France’s most popular politicians according to polls.
He didn’t revolutionize RN’s platform; their campaigns are still based on the usual far-right mantra of immigration, national identity and law and order.
The party is also skeptical of climate science and conservative on issues such as gay rights.
Despite opinion polls in many countries showing that young people are liberal on this issue, a quarter of French voters aged 18 to 24 supported the RN in the European elections.
“He’s funny, he has the same credentials as me,” said Maya, an 18-year-old RN voter from near Paris who declined to give her last name.
Maya, who has been following the campaigns on social media, said RN founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was an “asshole” but insisted Bardella was different – at least in his presentation.
“I know the RN is not very open about LGBT rights, but there are already laws that protect them, so nothing will change,” she said.
Marie Neihouser suggested that the RN is looking far beyond these elections with its TikTok strategy.
“Today’s teenagers will be tomorrow’s voters and by reaching them now with his messages, he is cementing his image in their minds,” she said.
“In five or ten years, it will be more natural for them to put a Bardella ballot in the ballot box.”
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