-
Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk is now in its third week and shows no signs of letting up.
-
Zelenskyy has indicated that his forces will dig in to create a “buffer zone” on the border.
-
Experts outlined the risks Ukraine faces at this stage of the offensive.
Ukraine took the initiative earlier this month with the offensive in Kursk.
The invasion of western Russian territory, now underway for three weeks, has brought an increasingly apathetic group of Western allies back into focus and dramatically brought the war to Russia.
Ukraine has also seized prisoners and, for an extended period, land, both of which could provide leverage for future negotiations.
The offensive also caused problems for Russian forces, some of which were rushed from key frontlines in Ukraine to Kursk.
Even though Ukrainians have little insight into Kiev’s exact goals, there is still plenty of reason to cheer.
But the offensive also committed much-needed elite troops to a herculean effort, while the main front already seemed stretched to the limit.
Business Insider reached out to several experts and asked them how and where this offensive could backfire for Ukraine in the coming weeks.
It could become a new, heavy line of defense
Ukraine’s ultimate goals for this new offensive are still unclear.
On Sunday President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said With this action he wanted to create a buffer zone in the Kursk region, as part of a broader goal of limiting Russia’s war capabilities.
Ukraine has already shown signs of digging in, setting up a headquarters in the region and proverb Several bridges important to Russian supply lines have been destroyed.
As for the invasion, Ukraine has “also linked this more explicitly to forcing President Vladimir Putin to enter into negotiations or end the invasion,” Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider.
“This raises the stakes and may lead them to commit to a position beyond what is sustainable,” he said.
The biggest risk, Savill said, is that if Ukrainian forces try to hold the area in the long term, they will extend the front line of the war. They will need to be able to reinforce and protect this front line just as well as the rest of the front.
Ukraine will have to defend this line as tenaciously as it has done everywhere else, he said.
Media reports indicate that the Kursk operation has already drawn some Ukrainian troops from the Donbas, a part of the main front line that was already under great pressure.
“That may be an advantage in the short term, but a disadvantage in the long term,” said Savill.
Ukraine could lose specialized troops and equipment
Patrick Bury, a military analyst at Britain’s University of Bath, told BI that Ukraine is “deploying elite brigades with good Western equipment.”
These brigades also include the legendary 80th Air Assault Brigade, which carried out important operations in Bakhmut and Kherson.
Ukraine cannot afford to lose them.
According to Bury, the worst-case scenario for Ukraine would be if Russia were to trap elite troops in Kursk with greater firepower, who would then be “crushed.”
“That’s the concern: they get repaired and the Russians wear them out over time, causing them to lose a significant portion of their capability and forcing them to withdraw,” he said.
In that scenario, Ukraine could withdraw to a more defensible position, losing ground but retaining significant forces, he said.
“The ultimate deal, the ultimate decision that Ukraine will have to make is how many losses are they willing to suffer against these elite brigades to keep how much land?”
Bury remained optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects.
He suspects that Ukraine has already made an accurate prediction about the number of troops Russia might send to Kursk, and is now making an educated guess that it won’t be enough to crush them there.
It looks like Ukraine will lose a key eastern city
It is unclear whether the movement of troops to Kursk has affected Ukraine’s ability to defend the 965-kilometer front line in the east of the country.
What is clear is that, regardless of the situation around Kursk, Russia has been moving closer to the all-important city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas region.
“When you get to Pokrovsk, it looks like you’ve cut off the supply lines to a number of different armies,” said Matthew Ford, a war expert and lecturer in international relations at Britain’s University of Sussex.
Ford described Pokrovsk as a “central hub” for Ukrainian logistics.
On Tuesday, the head of the city’s military administration ordered an evacuation, giving people two weeks to leave before Russian troops arrive.
A clear goal of the Kursk offensive was to thin out Russian forces along the main front line. Multiple reports indicate that Russia has redeployed troops from places including Crimea and Zaporizhia, Bury told BI.
But it does not appear that these redeployments have come at the expense of the advance on Pokrovsk, he said.
“The speed of the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk has increased since the Kursk operation,” he added.
Bury suspected that giving up territory in this way might simply be part of a broader Ukrainian plan – much of which, as the surprise Kursk offensive has made clear, is shrouded in an impressive veil of secrecy.
Savill said that ultimately much depends on the extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to send troops to the Kursk situation.
Putin could decide to simply “contain” the situation in Kursk with a minimal deployment of troops, while still exploiting his advantage in Pokrovsk, Savill said.
In this scenario, Russia gains an important city from Ukraine, while at the same time Ukraine is forced to devote even more resources to defending the buffer zone in Kursk.
Would Putin use nuclear weapons?
After previous attacks on Russian soil, Putin and his cronies have pointed menacingly to their nuclear arsenal.
Russian nuclear doctrine allows its use when the country’s sovereignty is at risk.
But there has been no warning since the Kursk offensive and Bury doubts whether this is possible now.
“The fact that absolutely nothing has happened and there is no indication whatsoever of the use of a tactical nuclear missile as a result of Ukraine transporting Western tanks to Russia shows that it is highly unlikely,” Bury said.
Ford agreed that the offensive shows that “Russia’s red lines on nuclear energy are not as red as we thought.”
Even if Ukraine withdraws from Kursk in the coming weeks, the offensive will yield some serious benefits, he added.
Ukraine’s efforts have focused the West’s attention back on the war. “That’s very useful,” he said.
Ukraine has also not lost significant numbers of troops, and has received prisoners of war for future trading, he added.
And it has reminded Western leaders that they can coordinate a sophisticated military surprise that could embarrass Putin, he said.
“And after that, does it matter whether they stay in Russia or not?” he asked. “I don’t think so, per se.”
Read the original article at Company Insider
