It will then fall to about 10.2 billion, which is 700 million lower than expected a decade ago.That’s just one of the key findings revealed in Thursday’s report. World Population Forecasts 2024 report published by the UN on Thursday.
However, global population change is uneven and the demographic landscape is changing, with rapid population growth in some places and rapid population ageing in others, making reliable population data “more important than ever,” the UN’s sexual and reproductive health agency said (UN-FPA), announcing the report that will be published simultaneously with the publication World Population Day.
The report “should be used to reach and respond to the needs of those left behind,” the agency said.
‘Everyone counts’
Marking the International DayUN Secretary-General António Guterres said it is crucial to count everyone accurately, “because everyone counts.”
“Our rich human tapestry is only as strong as its weakest thread. When data and other systems work for those at the edge, they work for everyone. That’s how we accelerate progress for everyone.”
To examine these population data in more detail, the 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP), published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections out to the year 2100.
The WPP is crucial for the supervision of the Sustainable Development Goalswith about a quarter of indicators relying on its data.
Lower fertility, ageing population
Overall fertility rates in the world are declining, where women have one fewer child on average than around 1990.
In more than half of all countries and territories, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level needed to keep a population size constant.
Meanwhile, nearly a fifth of all countries and territories, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility”with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman during her lifetime.
Reaching the top
In 2024, populations peaked in 63 countries and territoriesincluding China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation. The total population of this group is expected to decline by 14 percent over the next thirty years.
The average age of the world’s population is also increasing.
By the end of the 2070s, the number of people aged 65 or over is expected to exceed the number of people under 18..
This is partly due to the overall increase in life expectancy and the decrease in mortality rates over the past three decades. By the end of the 2050s, more than half of all deaths worldwide will occur at age 80 or older, a significant increase from 17 percent in 1995.
Fast growth
While slow population growth or decline will occur mainly in high-income countries, rapid population growth will occur in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.
Very rapid growth is expected in particular for Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia, with a total population of doubling between 2024 and 2054.
This population growth will increase the demand for resources, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Combined with poorly managed urbanization and rising living standards, this will exacerbate environmental impacts.
Climate change is a major challenge and it particularly affects these countries. Many people depend on agriculture and there is a lot of food insecurity.
In countries such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, populations are also expected to increase through 2054. and could potentially peak in the second half of the century or later.
Reproductive health
Central to population and development is the ‘recognition that women’s sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights are essential’. cornerstones of sustainable development“, said Secretary-General Guterres.
Early pregnancy remains a challenge, especially in low-income countries.
In 2024, 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 percent of the global total, were born to mothers under 18 years of age.
© WHO India/Sanchita Sharma
Approximately 340,000 of these children were born to children under the age of 15, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of both the young mothers and their children.
WPP data shows that investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and raising the age at which women can marry and have their first child in countries where this happens at a young age, will have positive effects on women’s health, education levels and labour market participation.
These efforts will also help reduce the scale of investments needed to achieve sustainable development, while ensuring that no one is left behind.