According to an analysis by energy think tank Ember, the national targets will see global wind capacity more than double by 2022 by 2030, but there is not enough room for a tripling.
The sum of the 2030 national wind energy targets of 70 countries and the EU amounts to 2.15 TW, a 2.4-fold increase compared to the 901 GW of global cumulative capacity installed in 2022.
This leaves a gap of 585 GW to achieve a global tripling of wind power, which would amount to 2.74 TW.
If this level is reached, wind energy would generate almost a fifth (19%) of the world’s electricity supply.
Ember cited projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA), BloombergNEF and the Global Wind Energy Council, which agree that global wind capacity will reach about 2.1 TW in 2030, comparable to the current sum of national targets.
The main driver is China, as the country is expected to install more than 50% of the world’s wind energy facilities between 2024 and 2030.
Ember said China is exceeding its target and is likely to nearly triple its wind capacity from 2022 to 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10% by 2035, Energy technologyparent company of Global data.
The IEAThe Renewable Energy Progress Tracker found that of the 70 countries with wind targets (including more subjective “implicit” targets), nearly two-thirds are expected to miss their national 2030 targets. Ember pointed out that collectively, these countries are falling well short of the tripling of wind capacity needed, with the largest gaps in the US, India and the EU.
In contrast, Brazil and Turkey’s recent and projected wind expansions exceed what is needed to meet their 2030 wind targets. However, Ember identified this overachievement as a result of both countries having low targets: 217 GW for Brazil and 91 GW for Turkey.
According to the IEAAccording to the Net Zero Roadmap, wind energy could generate almost as much energy as solar energy by 2030, despite its current capacity being less than half.
While a recent Roadmap update showed faster growth in solar, Ember said solar is unlikely to make up for the shortfall in wind generation unless wind grows at the right pace.
Katye Altieri, global electricity analyst at Ember, noted: “Governments lack ambition in wind, and onshore wind in particular. Amid the hype around solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar.”
Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, added: “Action needs to be taken on permitting, financing and supply chains – areas where action will deliver multiple benefits that will close the gap between action and delivery.”
At the COP28 climate change conference, held in Dubai in December 2023, participating countries agreed to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030. COP29 could see further progress on wind energy, as shown at a pre-conference event in July hosted by the government of Azerbaijan and wind energy association WindEurope.
However, the International Renewable Energy Agency recently reported that the world will miss the 2030 target if capacity continues to grow at the current slow rate.
“Global wind capacity to double by 2030, national targets fail to triple” was originally drafted and published by Energy technologya brand of GlobalData.
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