“The rapid change, uncertainty and technological developments we are seeing, against a backdrop of geopolitical unrest, mean any country can be diverted from its course more easily and more often,” said UN Environment Programme General Manager Inger Andersen.
These changes include humanity’s degradation of the natural world, the rapid development of technologies such as AI, competition for natural resources, increasing inequality, and declining trust in institutions.
Together they create a so-called polycrisis, where global crises amplify and synchronize – with enormous consequences for the well-being of people and the planet.
Signs of change
In addition to the eight shifts, the report identifies 18 signals of change. These signals – identified by hundreds of global experts through regional and stakeholder consultations, including youth – provide a deeper understanding of potential disruptions, both positive and negative, that the world must prepare for.
These include the growing demand for rare earth elements, minerals and metals, and the increasing demand for deep sea mining and space mining, even above the stratosphere.
This could pose a threat to nature and biodiversity, lead to more pollution and waste and lead to more conflicts.
The thawing of permafrost due to a warming climate has also led to major consequences for the environment, animals and people, by releasing ancient organisms that may be pathogenic. It has already led to an outbreak of anthrax, a serious infectious disease caused by bacteria, in Russia’s vast Siberian region.
The report also identifies the increase in armed conflict and violence, as well as the human health and environmental impacts of forced displacement, as important signals of change that need to be anticipated.
Importance of foresight
Despite these emerging crises, the report also concludes that implementing better forecasting tools is the best way to help the world anticipate future disruptions.
“Foresight provides a useful set of tools to move beyond short-term thinking and identify future opportunities and risks “On condition that this is done in a truly pluralistic way,” said Peter Gluckman, president of the ISC.
To ensure this pluralistic approach, the report recommends adopting a new social contract that includes a broad range of stakeholders, including indigenous peoples, giving youth a stronger voice, and rethinking the measures of progress beyond GDP.
“As the impact of multiple crises grows, Now is the time to get ahead and protect ourselves from emerging challenges“, said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
“By monitoring signals of change and using foresight, the world can avoid repeating past mistakes and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruptions“, she added.
