The fast-paced French election campaign is over, and despite last-ditch calls not to support the far right, voters appear ready to hand the National Rally party a historic victory in the parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that this would unleash “impulses of hatred and aggression.”
But the party of Marine Le Pen and 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, who could become the next prime minister, has at least consolidated his lead in the opinion polls.
National Rally has fended off a series of accusations of racism involving both party members and supporters. The big question now is whether it can achieve an absolute majority in two rounds on the next two Sundays.
They have a great chance, after the European elections of June 9 colored most of France’s electoral map dark blue. That was the moment Emmanuel Macron decided to surprise the French people by deciding to call new elections within three weeks.
National Rally (RN) is preparing for an important night on Sunday. A poll taken a few hours before the end of the campaign showed that support stood at 36.5%.
The candidates hope to win dozens of seats in the National Assembly that night, with more than 50% of the votes. But most seats will be decided in a second round on July 7, between two, three or even four candidates.
So opinion polls don’t tell the whole story and a hastily created left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, also has its sights set on victory, just a few points behind the RN on 29%.
According to the Ifop poll, the Ensemble alliance, led by Gabriel Attal, is in third place with 20.5%. He argues that the other two main blocs are extreme.
In no area on mainland France did the Rassemblement National enjoy greater support than in L’Aisne, a rural department in the north with just over 50% of the vote.
Since 2022, L’Aisne has already had three RN MPs and the historic town of Villers-Cotterêts has had a Rassemblement National mayor, Franck Briffaut, for ten years.
A party veteran with more than forty years of experience, dating back to the time of the Front National Jean Marie Le Penhe feels that the path to power has been inevitable, just as Giorgia Meloni won the elections in Italy.
But like many in his party, he will not settle for anything less than an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which requires at least 289 of the 577 parliamentary seats.
“I will not participate in it because it is a trap by Macron. I am also convinced that if we get an absolute majority, he should be forced to leave. As long as he is there, we cannot continue with our entire program. Because we need changes in the constitution.”
President Macron has promised not to leave office until the end of his term in 2027. His job is to appoint the next prime minister after the second round of elections on July 7.
Jordan Bardella, whose campaign posters have “Prime Minister” written underneath his name, insists he won’t settle for anything less than an absolute majority.
That leaves open the question of who Mr Macron will choose if RN falls short. “It makes no sense for Emmanuel Macron to name a prime minister that no one would want,” says constitutional expert Prof. Dominique Rousseau. But if there is no absolute majority, he says the president has room to maneuver.
Normally the largest party would form the majority, but if it refused, he could look for a consensus figure who could bring together the remnants of the center-right and center-left.
For now, it is Jordan Bardella who is taking the lead, announcing during a TV debate two nights ago that some kind of “government of national unity” awaits him.
Mr Bardella has promised a government of all talents, including previously unknown “sincere patriots who take France’s sovereignty to heart”. However, he did mention former Conservative leader Eric Ciotti, who alienated most of his colleagues when he forged an alliance with RN.
It may not sound convincing, and the prospect of power-sharing – or “cohabitation” – with President Macron sounds like three very difficult years in French politics.
Marine Le Pen, the leader of Rassemblement National, has already stirred tensions by questioning the president’s role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and describing him as only an “honorary member.”
The intensity of this election campaign and its importance have prompted Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to warn of the risk that “ultra-left and ultra-right” will try to sow chaos after both rounds of elections. He has called on local prefects to exercise vigilance.
Far away from the stormy politics of Paris. A Greens campaigner handed out leaflets to a handful of passers-by in the northern town of Soissons, which has been run by a Rassemblement National MP for the past two years.
He complained that the Royal Navy had done nothing for this ancient and now deprived city since he took office.
In the main shopping street, people still call the party the Front National, despite Marine Le Pen’s efforts to rebrand her party and shake off its old image of racism and anti-Semitism.
Jonathan says the RN is no different from its predecessor, but isn’t too worried: “There are locks in the Assembly, in the constitution, so it’s not like they’re going to start a dictatorship here.”
One mother said she lived in a nearby village as a black family and was concerned that the RN vote was so high: “It’s huge. We didn’t expect RN to get the most votes in L’Aisne.”
She also thinks the far right will have a hard time changing the constitution, but she is more concerned about their rhetoric.
One of RN’s main platforms is ‘National Priority’, which limits social security to French citizens, alongside energy tax cuts and income tax exemptions for those under thirty.
The party also says dozens of sensitive, strategic jobs would not be open to people with dual nationality in France, who make up an estimated 5% of the population.
A retiring MP suggested the appointment of Moroccan-born former Education Minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem had been “a mistake”.
Marine Le Pen quickly shot him down, but it is clear that the issue of 3.3 million French citizens with a second nationality will not go away.
“We are not really in favor of dual nationalities,” Mayor Franck Briffaut told the BBC in Villers-Cotterêts, stressing that this was just his personal opinion.
“It’s like bigamy. We’re in a civilization where bigamy is not possible. I can’t have dual citizenship; you belong to one or the other. You can’t love two countries, just like you can’t be married to two women.”
