France’s National Rally confirms lead in snap election polls

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(Bloomberg) — France’s National Rally has consolidated its lead in opinion polls from just over a week before the country’s snap elections, with one forecast showing the far-right party could win an outright majority in the new parliament.

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The party is led by a 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, received the support of 33% of likely voters, according to a poll published by Odoxa on Friday. National Rally was ahead of the 28% score for the left-wing alliance New Popular Front and 19% for President Emmanuel Macron’s movement.

In another poll published on Saturday by Opinionway and Vae Solis, the far-right party gained two percentage points to 35% compared to June 14, while the New Popular Front gained three points to 28% and Macron’s movement two points to 22%.

Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap legislative vote after his group was defeated in European Parliament elections this month. The first round of voting is scheduled for June 30 and the second on July 7.

Predicting the number of seats each party could ultimately win is complicated. The French electoral process is based on a two-round system, with in most cases the two frontrunners from the first round competing against each other in the second round of voting.

However, in some cases, three candidates may be eligible for a second round. The current momentum could translate into 120 to 170 such contests compared to just eight in the 2022 elections, Odoxa projections show.

There are 577 parliamentary seats up for grabs, of which 289 are needed for an absolute majority.

According to the Odoxa poll, the National Rally and affiliated candidates could win 250 to 300 seats in the next parliament, up from 89 now. The New Popular Front could have between 160 and 210 MPs, while Macron’s movement could get 70 to 120 seats, down from 250.

Odoxa and Opinionway interviewed 2,006 and 1,009 people online respectively between June 19 and 20.

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