France goes to the polls on Sunday for one of the most important elections in years. The far right is hoping for a historic victory, but a political stalemate is more likely.
This is the first time that the anti-immigration National Rally (RN) of Marine Le-Pen And Jordan Bardella had a real chance to lead the government and gain full control of the National Assembly.
But after the RN’s victory in the first round of snap parliamentary elections last Sunday, hundreds of rival candidates dropped out to give others a better chance of defeating the far right.
In France, voting starts at 8:00 am (06:00 GMT) with the first exit polls released 12 hours later.
Whatever the outcome, it’s hard to see the president… Emmanuel Macron that comes out of this pit.
Four weeks ago, he said it was a responsible solution to call an early vote in response to the RN’s victory in the European elections, minutes after the party’s 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, challenged him to do so.
The two rounds of elections came as a shock to a country preparing for the start of the Olympic Games in Paris on July 26. Security was already tight and now 30,000 police have been deployed for a period of heightened political tension.
There are fears of violence in Paris and other French cities regardless of the outcome of the vote, and a planned protest outside the National Assembly on Sunday night has been banned.
In Dreux, a historic old town on the road to Normandy, Sunday’s mood falls on the day the Olympic flame passes. “For us it’s something big, bigger than the elections,” says Pauline in the tourist office.
The flame has been traveling through France for almost two months and Dreux has planned a weekend of festivities to celebrate its arrival.
“Macron should have waited until after the Olympics,” Antoine, a resident of Dreux, told the BBC.
Veteran commentator Nicolas Baverez believes that the president has not only blown up his term of office and opened the gates of power wide to the far right. “He has jeopardized the organization of the Paris Olympics in 2024, which could be a final blow to the honor and image of France,” he wrote in Le Point on the eve of the vote.
The constituency in which Dreux is a member is one of the races to watch in the second round of this election.
Candidates like Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have already won their seats, winning more than half of the vote. But another 500 contests are decided in second rounds, usually involving two or three candidates.
Former conservative minister Olivier Marleix was defeated in the first round by far-right candidate Olivier Dubois. They both qualified for the second round, along with a candidate from the left-wing New Popular Front, which is in second place nationally.
But after being narrowly defeated by her Conservative rival, Nadia Faveris withdrew from the race “to block National Rally”.
One voter, Morgan, was skeptical and doubted anything would change in the city no matter who won.
There have been 217 such withdrawals across France, including 130 candidates from the Popular Front and 81 from the presidential Ensemble alliance.
And that has dramatically changed the balance of this crucial general election.
According to forecasts after Sunday’s first round, the RN had a good chance of winning an absolute majority of 289 seats, but the latest opinion polls from Friday indicate that this is now out of reach, with 205 to 210 seats as a potential maximum.
The parties trying to block an RN victory range from the radical left, communists and Greens to the Macron centrists and conservatives. They say they are defending the Fifth Republic against the extreme policies of the far right.
Rally National has watered down many of its policies, but still wants to give French citizens “national priority” over immigrants for jobs and housing. It wants to abolish the right to automatic citizenship for the children of immigrants who have spent five years in France between the ages of 11 and 18. It also wants to ban dual nationals from dozens of sensitive jobs.
Polls are not necessarily reliable. Each of the 500 races is a local contest and voters do not follow the recommendations of political parties.
If the RN were to win more than 250 seats, it could seek allies to form a minority government. President Macron’s party had to make do with similar numbers until he became frustrated by his limited ability to push through reforms in parliament.
That kind of RN government is unlikely, believes Prof Armin Steinbach of HEC business school in Paris. It would soon face a vote of no confidence, he believes, and under the constitution France cannot hold new general elections for at least another year.
Another possible scenario is a “grand coalition” that would include most other parties, with the exception of the radical France Unbowed (LFI) party, which is rejected as extremist by the Macron alliance and conservatives.
This idea has gained popularity in recent days, but GroenLinks leader Marine Tondelier has made it clear that “there will be no Macronist prime minister”, whatever happens.
There is also talk of a technocratic government, similar to those that governed Italy during the eurozone debt crisis. But instead of choosing experts from outside politics, it could include politicians with proven expertise in certain areas.
In any case, France is entering uncharted territory, says Jean-Yves Dormagen of the Cluster 17 institute.
President Macron himself has indicated that he does not intend to resign and that he will remain in office for his final three years.
“We will have Macron as a lame duck president who created this mess without having to do it himself,” Prof. Steinbach told the BBC. “And he loses his legitimacy.”
France’s first concern is to have a government during the Olympic Games.
Constitutional expert Benjamin Morel believes the president can form a government of national unity until the end of the Olympic Games in Paris.
“That would give the parties time to reach an agreement between now and the start of the school year and the next budget,” he told Le Figaro.
