CARACAS, Oct 2 (IPS) – Large families are already a relic of the past in Latin America and the Caribbean, due to the modernization and growth of the economy and workforce. Now the region is faced with an aging population and migration flows.
In the region “the fertility rate has fallen from 5.8 children per woman in 1950 to 1.8 in 2024. The largest decline in fertility occurred between 1950 and 2024 (-68.4% vs. -52.6% globally) ,” Simone Cecchini, director of the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Centertold IPS from Santiago de Chile.
“Improvements in educational levels, living conditions, urbanization, the empowerment of women and their integration into the labor force have favored the option of reducing the number of children,” said Cecchini, whose center is part of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
Martha Marcondes, a teacher from the Brazilian city of São Paulo, tells IPS how the number of children in her family has changed as a result of regional behavior.
“My great-grandmother had fourteen children, and her life was devoted to them; my grandmother thought differently in her day and only had four; my mother had three, and when she was pregnant for the fourth time, she chose a abortion,” she explains. .
Marcondes only had one daughter, because “we liked the idea of a second child, but my husband and I sat down and decided not to have any more. My daughter, who is 22 and studying International Relations, is focusing on her career and travel and has no intention of having children”.
Most of her daughter’s classmates are also only children or have at most one brother or sister. “Having fewer children is a way to be able to provide a better life for the ones you do have,” says Marcondes.
Couples like Tamara and Héctor – who prefer not to reveal their last name – agree. She is a pastry chef and he is a firefighter in Ciudad Guayana, in southeastern Venezuela, with a ten-year-old daughter.
“With just enough to pay for school and support ourselves, we have no house or car. It is becoming increasingly difficult to cover expenses in Venezuela, the income is very low, so years ago I told Héctor: no more children,” she said. IPS from her hometown.
Demographer Anitza Freitez, head of the Department of Demographic Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas confirmed to IPS that “the experiences analyzed in countries in crisis show that the situation of deprivation in this context pushes people not to have children.
Cecchini notes that “as people become better educated and wealthier, they choose to have fewer children. This choice has been made possible by greater access to sexual and reproductive health and the use of modern contraceptives, which have also lowered adolescent fertility “.
She notes that although the region’s adolescent fertility rate (50.5 children per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 in 2024) is lower than in the recent past (in 2010 the rate was 73.1 children), it is still more than is above the global average (40.7).
Aging and the economy
The decline in fertility is causing strong changes in the age structure of the population, with a sharp decline in the proportion of children and a steady increase in that of older adults.
Average household size is also declining, from 4.3 people in 2000 to 3.4 people in 2022, according to ECLAC data for 20 Latin American countries, while lifespans are increasing.
The average life expectancy at birth for both sexes in Latin America and the Caribbean was only 49 years in 1950 and has reached 76 years in 2024.
Due to declining fertility and increasing life expectancy, 95 million people aged 60 and over will live in Latin America and the Caribbean by 2024, representing 14.2% of the total population. In 2030 there will be 114 million, 16.6% of the total population.
The group of people over 80 in particular is expected to grow strongly, from 12.5 million in 2024 to 16.3 million in 2030.
Cecchini argues that aging populations and shrinking family sizes are reshaping economies and societies, bringing with them challenges and opportunities.
Aging, she said, “poses challenges for government policies in the areas of social protection, health care, care and the labor market. Universal coverage of social protection or health care is still not provided,” and the increase in the elderly population increases the likelihood of demand for these systems.
It also increases the need for care, especially in the long term. Because the traditional care model, based on women’s unpaid work within large families, is no longer sustainable, “public policy measures are also needed in this area,” Cecchini emphasizes.
But in terms of options, older people are increasingly demanding products and services, which could bring benefits to markets.
The ‘silver economy’ – focused on the needs and demands of the elderly – offers opportunities in areas such as tourism, entertainment, telemedicine, information and communication technologies, smart home systems, healthcare and home care, the expert says.
“New jobs in these sectors, especially in health and care, will emerge as a result of the aging population,” she said.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted within the United Nations 2030 Agenda, do not set targets for fertility rates, but can benefit from reductions, such as reducing poverty by having more people in the labor market with fewer dependents.
Demographic dividend and migration
Population aging and declining fertility impact the demographic dividend, opportunities for economic growth and poverty reduction due to higher population growth in the most productive age group, between 15 and 64 years, relative to the dependent population .
This segment of the population represents on average 68% of the total in the region Figures from the World Bankwith some countries in the English-speaking Caribbean, Brazil and Colombia above average, and others below, such as Guatemala, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.
The expected duration of this dividend varies widely across the region – longest in Bolivia, shortest in Uruguay – because it depends on the pace of the aging process, determined by declining mortality, declining fertility and migration processes.
“But we must always remember that the demographic dividend is only an opportunity, which must be seized with appropriate public policies, such as investing in the human capacities of young people and the promotion of gender equality in the labor market,” Cecchini stressed. .
Migration has a major impact on countries such as Cuba, where more than 800,000 people have left in the past two years, and Venezuela, which has seen more than seven million of its nationals leave in the past decade.
“The decline in fertility in a country like Venezuela is accompanied by a migration process, which translates into a loss of the demographic dividend and an aging population,” Freitez said.
She emphasizes that this process is taking place “in a country where aging is not at the forefront of government policy. An example is that the pensions received by the elderly are not even minimally sufficient to cover certain needs, and public health is very inadequate.”
Old-age pensions in Venezuela are pegged to the minimum wage, which is less than four dollars per month, although some groups of retirees occasionally receive bonuses of a few dollars more.
“The entire burden then falls on a family whose structure has been transformed, as more than a million households (out of just over six million in Venezuela) have experienced the migration of some of their members and have become transnational families,” said Freitez.
Whether due to this spread, the decline in fertility rates, the progress of modernization and the aging population, the great families that characterized life and tradition in Latin America have now become museum pieces.
© Inter Press Service (2024) — All rights reservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service