“We must continue to learn, read and prepare. But we must not boast. We will win if we go to war, but we will not boast until we go to war,” Abiy says in the 11-second clip.
The post also includes a photo of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Diplomatic quarrel
Earlier this year, Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland – a breakaway region of Somalia – that allows Addis Ababa to use Somaliland’s port at Berbera (archived here).
The deal led to a major diplomatic conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia, with the latter’s president recently… accusatory Ethiopia for violating its sovereignty (archiving here).
Two rounds of talks brokered by Turkey ended without significant results. A third round of talks is scheduled for September 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia has long been involved in a dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a mega hydroelectric power plant on the Nile (archived here).
Egypt has expressed concern that the huge dam could significantly reduce the flow of the Nile, while Ethiopia sees the dam as important for its development. Several talks between the two countries have ended without an agreement.
In the midst of this dispute, Egypt sent military equipment to Somalia in late August 2024, escalating tensions between Ethiopia on one side and Egypt and Somalia on the other (archived here).
However, the claim that the clip shows Abiy issuing a warning to Egypt and Somalia is misleading.
Old video
AFP Fact Check used the video verification tool InVID-WeVerify to execute reverse image search on key frames from the video.
The results led to the original videoa much longer version, published on the official Facebook page of the state broadcaster Oromia Broadcasting Network (OBN) on December 13, 2020 (archived here).
The 23-minute video is subtitled in Afaan Oromoo and translates as: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has spoken to army leaders in Mekelle.”
Mekelle is the capital of the Tigray region, where the Ethiopian army fought against the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) during a two-year war from November 2020 to November 2022.
The army captured Mekelle in late November 2020 and Abiy went to the city the following month to meet with military leaders (archived here).
In the video, Abiy wears an Ethiopian army uniform and talks about various topics, such as discipline and military tactics.
The original video begins with Abiy saying in Amharic that “the Ethiopian Armed Forces have proven that they are defending the sovereignty of their country as their ancestors did and they have also proven that they are capable of fulfilling legal and military duties.”
He says the military has taken coordinated action against the TPLF and “achieved victories in a manner that limits casualties”.
From 18’22” to 18’33”, he adds: “We must continue to learn, read and prepare. However, we must not boast. We will win if we go to war, but we will not boast until we go to war.”
The misleading clip recently shared on Facebook comes from this segment of the original video.
AFP Fact Check reviewed both the original video and the misleading clip and found that Abiy at no point issued a warning to Somalia and Egypt, nor did he mention them.