Claims swirl about Israeli attacks near the Russian air base in Syria

Israel carried out attacks near the Syrian coast this morning, with explosions reported near the Russian-operated land Khmeimim Air Basenear the town of Latakia. At this stage it is not clear whether the Russian airport was actually hit, intentionally or otherwise – which would be a first. In any case, the attacks represent a notable escalation in terms of Israel’s willingness to pursue targets that are very close to this key Russian military facility in Syria and are a major point of pride for Moscow.

Initial reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a British-based information agency, to describe attacks in the coastal province of Latakia, targeting including an ammunition warehouse near the city of Jablah, not far from the Khmeimim air base. Weapons supplied by Iran and destined for Hezbollah, its Lebanese ally and proxy, are often first delivered to Syria, for onward transit to Lebanon. The suggestion here is that Iranian munitions bound for the militant group were targeted shortly after arriving in Syria.

According to Israeli Army (IDF) spokesman Avichay Adraee, Hezbollah recently smuggled weapons from Syria into Lebanon via the Masnaa border crossing.

Just yesterday, the IDF released a video showing examples of Russian-made weapons that forces say they captured in Lebanon Metis-M anti-tank guided missiles, Strela-2 portable air defense systems, MRO-A rocket-powered anti-personnel flamethrowers and RPG-29 Vampire and RPG-27 Tavolga rocket-propelled grenades.

The SOHR says the warehouse in Jablah was destroyed and also reports the “presence of warships in the sea, and fighter planes believed to be Israeli.” The group says Syrian and Russian air defenses were active for more than 40 minutes in an attempt to thwart the attacks.

The mention of Israeli Navy warships in the SOHR report is unusual, but it cannot be confirmed that they were the source of the attacks. Israel has normally used its warplanes to carry out these types of missions, although Israeli Navy warships were present off the Syrian coast.

The Israeli Navy is not particularly heavily equipped for attacking land targets, although it is possible that the latter is the case Gabriel 5 anti-ship missile can also be used for land attacks. An export version of this weapon, the SeabreakerIt is advertised as having a precision land attack capability, thanks to its imaging infrared seeker. Gabriel 5 rockets are used by the latest Sa’ar 6 class corvettes and can be fitted to older models Sa’ar 5 class corvettes, too. They are believed to have a range of up to 248 miles. So is the Israeli submarine fleet able to launch the mysterious Popeye Turbo long-range cruise missiles, but these are thought to be configured only for nuclear strikes as they are the country’s deterrent to a second strike.

Another possibility, and one that would be consistent with reports of drones in the air at the time of the attacks, is that Israel launched one-way drones or airlifted munitions from warships or other ships off the coast. If TWZ discussed earlierIsrael has developed a naval version of its popular Harop drone. Standard versions could also be launched from containers on the deck of a ship.

Reports on Syrian state television said Israel was responsible for bombing the Khmeimim air base “an hour after the arrival of an Iranian Qeshm Airlines plane.” The same source claims that the Israelis’ targets were “military sites in Latakia province” as well as a warehouse within the perimeter of the air base. “The Israeli attack did not target the runways or towers of Khmeimim air base and Latakia civilian airport,” Syrian state television said.

The Syrian report details the Israeli bombardment launched from the sea, which involved 30 rockets launched between 3:55 a.m. and 4:41 a.m. After the attacks ended, Russian aircraft patrolled over Latakia.

The Khmeimim air base has been a key hub for the Kremlin’s military intervention in Syria, which started in 2015. Two years later, the Russian government signed a new long-term lease for the base with the Syrian authorities. part of a bigger deal to which Russia also expanded its access port facilities in Tartusfurther south, at least another 49 years. This arrangement came after the Russian armed forces, especially the Combat Air Force, had done so helpful in preventing the collapse of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad. Now the facility serves as the only one Russian airport on the Mediterranean Sea, a very strategic airport but also a symbolic prize that Moscow won in exchange for saving Assad.

An unconfirmed report details the death of a “prominent commander” of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) following Israeli attacks on Khmeimim air base.

Also today, Syria’s state-controlled news agency Sana reported that Syrian air defenses were active again, this time facing “hostile targets” in the skies near Damascus, but gave no further details.

The SOHR reports that an Israeli airstrike on the Syrian capital resulted in the death of Hassan Jaafar, the son-in-law of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He was said to be one of three dead with another three injured – when a building was razed to the ground in the Mezzah district in the west of the city.

Israel has long been carrying out attacks on Iran-linked targets in Syria, but has increased the intensity of such attacks since last year’s October 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israeli territory.

These latest attacks are being carried out in addition to attacks on targets in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen.

Over the course of this year so far, the SOHR has documented 94 Israeli attacks on Syrian territory, including 77 air strikes and 17 rocket/missile attacks by ground forces. In addition, the group says Israel has destroyed nearly 185 targets, including buildings, weapons and ammunition depots, headquarters, vehicles and others. SOHR claims the attacks killed 250 fighters and injured 177 others. Significant numbers of these victims are believed to have come from the IRGC and Hezbollah.

The majority of these attacks targeted targets in and around Damascus.

The latest round of Israeli attacks is different, however, in that Israel has apparently targeted Iran-related targets – particularly weapons destined for Hezbollah – in close proximity to the main Russian military center in Syria. Israel may even have deliberately attacked a facility at the air base itself, although that remains unclear.

In both scenarios, the incident is worrying for Russia and Syria in the field of air defense. Khmeimim is the main hub for Russian air defense systems in the country indeed repeated drone attacks have asked questions about it before how resilient this defensive umbrella is. The current status is murky. On the one hand, tactics should have improved after years of war in Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia has shifted many air defense assets to that conflict. It is therefore not clear exactly what level of protection remains in the installation, at least as of yesterday.

Israel has done that before hit targets near the Russian naval base Tartusprompting an angry response from the Kremlin. Once again, weapons aimed at Hezbollah appear to have been targeted. Historically, Israel has also forewarned Russia of its attacks on targets in Syria, although this may no longer be the case.

Israel, for its part, almost never comments on these types of attacks in Syria, and satellite images of the base are so far inconclusive. Available low-resolution images this morning show all but part of the main platform and the core of the base’s operations and administration area, but with no apparent damage or smoke.

If this attack were indeed to take place within the perimeter of the air base, it appears that Israel has now decided that the risk is worth taking if it wants to succeed in intercepting weapons before they fall into the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon. It would also indicate that this facility, while still technically owned by the Assad regime, is being used for arms transfers that Russia would likely be aware of. This would represent a major change in what is publicly known about how this Russian-leased facility is being used.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com